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What’s in store for the Celtic Tiger?
Author(s)
Date Issued
1999
Date Available
2009-11-03T16:18:57Z
Abstract
In exploring the medium-term prospects for the Irish economy, this article argues that a pessimistic scenario, in which the rapid growth of recent years inevitably ends in a crash, is not plausible. But neither is it realistic to expect a continuation of "Celtic Tiger" growth rates. Under Irish conditions, GNP growth in excess of 3.5% a year leads to fall in unemployment. When "full employment" is reached, further reductions in unemployment lead to rising wage inflation. In the absence of an exchange rate adjustment, high wage inflation leads to a loss of competitiveness. This acts as a break on growth. For these reasons, the realistic medium-term prospect for the Irish economy is that the growth rate will revert to its long run average in the region of 3.5%.
Type of Material
Journal Article
Publisher
Irish Bankers' Federation
Journal
Irish Banking Review
Issue
Spring 1999
Start Page
2
End Page
15
Copyright (Published Version)
Irish Bankers' Federation, 1999
Subject – LCSH
Economic forecasting--Ireland
Ireland--Economic conditions--21st century
Economic development--Ireland
Language
English
Status of Item
Peer reviewed
ISSN
0021-1060
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License
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