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Federal Reserve information during the great moderation
Author(s)
Date Issued
2007-11
Date Available
2008-06-12T14:15:16Z
Abstract
Using data from the period 1970-1991, Romer and Romer (2000) showed that Federal Reserve forecasts of inflation and output were superior to those provided by commercial forecasters. In this paper, we show that this superior forecasting performance deteriorated after 1991. Over the decade 1992-2001, the superior forecast accuracy of the Fed held only over a very short time horizon and was limited to its forecasts of inflation. In addition, the performance of both the Fed and the commerical forecasters in predicting inflation and output, relative to that of "naive" benchmark models, dropped remarkably during this period.
Type of Material
Technical Report
Publisher
Central Bank of Ireland
Series
Central Bank of Ireland Research Technical Paper
8/RT/07
Copyright (Published Version)
2007 Copyright Central Bank of Ireland
Subject – LCSH
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
Inflation (Finance)
Economic forecasting
Language
English
Status of Item
Not peer reviewed
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License
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