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Finding the Distribution of Bridge Lifetime Load Effect by Predictive Likelihood
Author(s)
Date Issued
2006-07
Date Available
2013-03-13T17:16:53Z
Abstract
To assess the safety of an existing bridge, the loads to which it may be subject in its lifetime are required.
Statistical analysis is used to extrapolate a sample of load effect values from the simulation period to the
required design period. Complex statistical methods are often used and the end result is usually a single
value of characteristic load effect. Such a deterministic result is at odds with the underlying stochastic
nature of the problem. In this paper, predictive likelihood is shown to be a method by which the
distribution of the lifetime extreme load effect may be determined. A basic application to the prediction
of lifetime Gross vehicle Weight (GVW) is given. Results are also presented for some cases of bridge
loading, compared to a return period approach and important differences are identified. The implications
for the assessment of existing bridges are discussed.
Type of Material
Conference Publication
Publisher
ASRANet Ltd
Language
English
Status of Item
Not peer reviewed
Part of
3rd International ASRANet Colloquium, editors P.K. Das and M.K. Chryssanthopolous, University of Glasgow, 2006
Conference Details
3rd International ASRANet Colloquium, held at the University of Glasgow, 10-12 July 2006.
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License
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