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European Union trade and investment flows u-shaping industrial output in Central and Eastern Europe : theory and evidence
Author(s)
Date Issued
1998-04
Date Available
2009-04-02T11:48:35Z
Abstract
We undertake an analysis of the evolution of industrial output in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Romania over the period 1989-1995. We theoretically and empirically model the growth dynamics of EU oriented output within sectors of industry, ex-post trade and market liberalization, as investment induced Schumpeterian waves of product innovation. Greater assess to the EU market and investors is estimated to have induced growth with increasing convexity over-time in all sectors of each country but particularly in traditionally larger sectors. This growth, unconstrained by the transition process, was in product categories that already exported to the EU before 1989. We estimate the growth dynamics of non-EU oriented output within sectors as unobservable deterministic sector and country specific heterogeneity. We demonstrate that the evolution of non-EU industrial output followed the pattern as that observed in CIS countries. The different shape in the industrial output of CEE compared to CIS countries is explained mainly by the evolution of traditionally EU oriented production that benefited greatly from increased access to the EU market and EU investors.
Sponsorship
Marie Curie Research Training Grant,
ERB4001GT965163
Type of Material
Working Paper
Publisher
University of Michigan. William Davidson Institute
Series
William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series
163
Copyright (Published Version)
Alexander Repkine and Patrick P. Walsh, 1998
Subject – LCSH
Investments, Foreign--Europe
Industrial productivity--Europe
Former communist countries--Economic conditions
Language
English
Status of Item
Not peer reviewed
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License
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