Geary Institute Working Papers
Permanent URI for this collection
Browse
Browsing Geary Institute Working Papers by Issue Date
Now showing 1 - 20 of 252
Results Per Page
Sort Options
- PublicationNonparametric bounds in the presence of item nonresponse, unfolding brackets, and anchoring(University College Dublin. Institute for the Study of Social Change (Geary Institute), 2001-09)
; ; Household surveys often suffer from nonresponse on variables such as income, savings or wealth. Recent work by Manski shows how bounds on conditional quantiles of the variable of interest can be derived, allowing for any type of nonrandom item nonresponse. The width between these bounds can be reduced using follow up questions in the form of unfolding brackets for initial item nonrespondents. Recent evidence, however, suggests that such a design is vulnerable to anchoring effects. In this paper Manski’s bounds are extended to incorporate the information provided by the bracket respondents allowing for different forms of anchoring. The new bounds are applied to earnings in the 1996 wave of the Health and Retirement Survey. The results show that the categorical questions can be useful to increase precision of the bounds, even if anchoring is allowed for.214 - PublicationSelection bias and measures of inequality(University College Dublin. Institute for the Study of Social Change, 2002-02)
; ; Variables typically used to measure inequality (e.g., wage earnings, household income or expenditure), are often plagued by nonrandom item nonresponse. Ignoring non-respondents or making (often untestable) assumptions on the nonresponse sub-population can lead to selection bias on estimates of inequality. This paper draws on the approach by Manski (1989,1994) to derive bounding intervals on both the Gini coefficient and the Inter-Quartile range. Both sets of bounds provide alternative measures of inequality which allow for any type of selective nonresponse, while making no assumptions on the behaviour of non-respondents. The theory is illustrated measuring earnings inequality (over time and between samples) for post-unification Germany over the nineties.434 - PublicationThe returns to education : a review of evidence, issues and deficiencies in the literature(University College Dublin. Institute for the Study of Social Change (Geary Institute), 2002-04-19)
; ; 552 - PublicationMonotonicity and the Roy model(University College Dublin. Institute for the Study of Social Change (Geary Institute), 2002-05)
; In this note we study the implications on a bivariate normal Roy Model of two sets of monotonicity hypotheses proposed recently by Manski and Pepper (2000). In that simple context, we show that these hypotheses imply strong restrictions on the correlations structure between the decision and the rewards.237 - PublicationUsing heteroscedasticity to estimate the returns to education(University College Dublin. Institute for the Study of Social Change (Geary Institute), 2002-06-14)
; We apply a new estimator to the measurement of the economic returns to education. We control for endogenous education, unobserved ability and measurement error using only the natural heteroscedasticty of wages and education attainment. Our prefered estimate, 6.07%, is closer to the OLS estimate but smaller (and more precise) than the estimates typically reported by studies that use IV. Our results indicate that the biases generated by unobserved ability and measurement error tend to cancel each other out as suggested by Griliches (1977). We also present Monte Carlo evidence to show that the finite sample bias our estimator is small.422 - PublicationCompetitive versus comparative advantage(University College Dublin. Institute for the Study of Social Change (Geary Institute), 2002-07-16)I explore the interactions between comparative, competitive and absolute advantage in a two-country model of oligopoly in general equilibrium. Comparative advantage always determines the direction of trade, but both competitive and absolute advantage affect resource allocation, trade patterns and trade volumes. Competitive advantage in the sense of more home firms drives foreign firms out of marginal sectors but also makes some marginal home sectors uncompetitive. Absolute advantage in the sense of a uniform fall in home costs tends to raise home output in all sectors but also leads both countries to specialise less in accordance with comparative advantage.
820 - PublicationGlobalisation and market structureThis paper reviews some puzzling economic aspects of globalisation and argues that they cannot be satisfactorily addressed in perfectly or monopolistically competitive models. Drawing on recent work, a model of oligopoly in general equilibrium is sketched. The model ensures theoretical consistency by assuming that firms are large in their own markets but small in the economy as a whole, and ensures tractability by assuming quadratic preferences defined over a continuum of goods. Applications considered include the effects of trade liberalisation on industrial structure, on cross-border merger waves, and on the distribution of income between skilled and unskilled workers.
1673 - PublicationEducation choice under uncertainty and public policy(University College Dublin. Institute for the Study of Social Change (Geary Institute), 2002-09-05)
; We analyse how progressive taxation and education subsidies affect schooling deci- sions when the returns to education are stochastic. We use the theory of real options to solve the problem of education choice in a dynamic, life-cycle consistent, stochastic model. We show that education attainment will be an increasing function of the risk associated with education. Furthermore, this result holds whether or not agents can borrow in order to pay for education and regardless of the degree of risk aversion. We also examine the link between consumption over the life-cycle and education choice to show that higher initial wealth will usually - but not always - have a positive effect on education attainment. Finally we show that progressive taxes will tend to reduce education attainment for the poor but increase it for the rich.323 - PublicationThe road less travelled : oligopoly and competition policy in general equilibrium(University College Dublin. Institute for the Study of Social Change (Geary Institute), 2002-09-25)I review previous approaches to modelling oligopoly in general equilibrium, and propose a new view which in principle overcomes their deficiencies: modelling firms as large in their own market but small in the economy as a whole. Implementing this approach requires a tractable specification of preferences. Dixit-Stiglitz preferences (which imply iso-elastic perceived demand functions) could be used, but "continuum-quadratic" preferences (which imply linear perceived demand functions) are more convenient. To illustrate their usefulness, I construct a simple closed-economy model of oligopoly in general equilibrium and derive some surprising implications for competition policy.
674 - PublicationDispersion in the economic return to schooling(University College Dublin. Institute for the Study of Social Change (Geary Institute), 2002-10-18)
; ; We extend the standard human capital earnings function to include dispersion in the return to schooling by treating the return as a random coefficient. If the rapid expansion in participation in higher education has been brought about by dipping further into the ability distribution, we should observe a rise in the variance of returns. Alternatively, if the expansion has come about through relaxing credit constraints then we might expect to see an increase in both the mean and variance of returns. Our estimates suggest that the variance in returns has not risen over time.1050 - PublicationDoes education raise productivity, or just reflect it?(University College Dublin. Institute for the Study of Social Change (Geary Institute), 2002-12-23)
; ; ; It is clear that education has an important effect on wages paid in the labour market However it not clear whether this is due to the role that education plays in raising the productivity of workers (the human capital explanation) or whether education simply reflects the ability of the worker (through a signalling role). In this paper we describe and implement, using a variety of UK datasets, a number of tests from the existing literature for discriminating between the two explanations. We find little support for signalling ideas in these tests. However, we have severe reservations about these results because our doubts about the power of these tests and the appropriateness of the data. We propose an alternative test, based on the response of some individuals to a change in education incentives offered to other individuals caused by the changes in the minimum school leaving age in the seventies. Using this idea we find that data in the UK appears to strongly support the human capital explanation.1198 - PublicationA multi-country study of inter-generational educational mobility(University College Dublin. Institute for the Study of Social Change (Geary Institute), 2003)
; ; This paper analyses intergenerational educational mobility using survey data for twenty countries. We find that a number of interesting patterns emerge. Estimating a measure of mobility as movement and an index of mobility as equality of opportunity we find that while these two measures are positively correlated, the correlation is far from perfect. Examining the link with educational inequality we find evidence which suggests an inverse relationship between mobility and inequality consistent with egalitarian theory. The relationship between mobility appears to be weak, high returns to education do not depress mobility, as some human capital theories would suggest. Mobility appears to be somewhat higher for men whereas equality is much the same for both sexes. There is evidence that mobility as equality of opportunity has risen consistent with modernization theory. There is no evidence that expansion of third level education has led to a fall in the penalty associated with having a low educated parent. Estimates of marginal mobility are quite different from average mobility.1317 - PublicationInitiatives encouraging e-Learning among older Europeans(University College Dublin. Institute for the Study of Social Change (Geary Institute), 2003)There are a surprising number of initiatives taking place in Europe which encourage older people to use ICT and in this way promote e-learning. Training is vital for the successful uptake of ICTs and the future of e-learning among older Europeans. At present, general education varies greatly among older people in Europe and illiteracy is still a problem. Many older people in Europe speak very little English, but a lot of content, software and computer terminology is in English. Nevertheless the experience of existing training courses targeted at older people is that language is not a real barrier to learning. The fact that browser software is in English, for example, is not a significant problem if ultimately interesting own-language content is available. In general, older men have a higher level of education, are more interested in ICT and are more likely to use computers at work; therefore older women need to receive special attention.
205 - PublicationConsumption and house prices in Ireland(University College Dublin, Institute for the Study of Social Change (Geary Institute), 2003)
; We examine the link between private consumption and housing wealth in Ireland. We find that the marginal propensity to consume out of housing wealth is essentially zero. This is in marked contrast to the recent evidence for other OECD countries. The evidence is robust to changes in statistical methodology. Thus we can conclude that the recent consumption growth has not been financed by borrowing against housing wealth perhaps because that the private sector does not find recent increases in house prices fully credible.4223 - PublicationAttitudes and behaviour of the Irish electorate in the second referendum on the Treaty of Nice(University College Dublin. Institute for the Study of Social Change (Geary Institute), 2003)
459 - PublicationThe roots of intense ethnic conflict may not in fact be ethnic : categories, communities and path dependence(University College Dublin. Institute for the Study of Social Change (Geary Institute), 2003)
; This article criticizes two theoretical strategies of approach to ethnicity and ethnic conflict and proposes an alternative. One strategy emphasizes the intense solidarity generated by the ethnic or ethno-national bond and the resistance to change of the communities thus formed; it explains these phenomena in terms of the deep feeling surrounding the quasi-kin sense of ethnicity. The other strategy emphasizes the contingency, situatedness, variability, even superficiality of ethnic feeling, and shows how the emergent and unstable linkages which constitute ethnic ‘groups’ are formed from an interplay of ethnic categories and ethnic entrepreneurs within a given institutional and legal context. We adopt an alternative theoretical strategy, seeing ethnicity as a product of a multiplicity of determinants rather than a simple essence, and locating it as one factor among many, which, depending on the tightness or looseness of their interlinkages and mutual feedback mechanisms, may form a path dependent self-reproductive system generating communal opposition and ethnic conflict.1512 - PublicationThe effect of disability on labour market outcomes in Germany : evidence from matching(University College Dublin. Institute for the Study of Social Change (Geary Institute), 2003-02)
; If labour market policies aimed at people with disabilities are effective, we should observe no significant difference in labour market outcomes between disable and non-disable individuals. This paper examines the impact of disability status on labour market outcomes using matching methods associated with treatment effect techniques for program evaluation. Such techniques avoid model misspecification and account for the common support problem, thus improving the identification strategy of alternative techniques that also select on observables. Using several waves from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP, 1994-2000) we estimate the impact of disability on both labour market participation and labour earnings. We find no significant difference in either of these two measures of labour market outcomes between disable and non-disable. Due to the construction of the treated and comparison groups, our results imply that (in Germany) disability labour market policies are effective at achieving their aim.196 - PublicationWage aspirations and unemployment persistenceThe reservation wage is an integral part of most theories of involuntary unemployment. We use panel data to examine the empirical determinants of the reservation wage - in particular the influence of previous wages - and consider what this implies for the evolution of the natural rate of unemployment. We find that previous wages have a signiÞcant but relatively small effect on reservation wages (an elasticity between 0.15 and 0.47). We also find considerable differences across genders with previous wages being more important for men and market wages being more important for women. Overall our results suggest that unemployment will adjust relatively quickly to shocks.
564