Centre for Financial Markets Working Papers
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The primary aim of the Centre for Financial Markets (CFM) is to produce research in Finance of the highest international standard by focusing attention on the operations of the financial services industry and their principal institutions. The Centre supports and promotes a research ethos that develops preliminary research through this working paper series and an internal research seminar series.
For more information please see the Centre for Financial Markets website.
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- PublicationAbsolute return volatilityIn recent years the finance industry from an academic and practitioner perspective has placed heavy emphasis on the analysis of volatility models. This is understandable given the importance that volatility plays for these agents and the fact that it is not directly observable representing somewhat of a holy grail. In particular, volatility modelling feeds directly into risk management practices.
299 - PublicationAn analysis of the EU Emission Trading Scheme(University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2009)
; The European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is the key policy instrument of the European Commission's Climate Change Program aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions to eight percent below 1990 levels by 2012. A critically important element of the EU ETS is the establishment of a market determined price for EU allowances. This article examines the extent to which several theoretically founded factors including, economic growth, energy prices and weather conditions determine the expected prices of the European Union CO2 allowances during the 2005 through to the 2009 period. The novel aspect of our study is that we examine the heavily traded futures instruments that have an expiry date in Phase 2 of the EU ETS. Our study adopts both static and recursive versions of the Johansen multivariate cointegration likelihood ratio test as well as a variation on this test with a view to controlling for time varying volatility effects. Our results are indicative of a new pricing regime emerging in Phase 2 of the market and point to a maturing market driven by the fundamentals. These results are valuable both for traders of EU allowances and for those policy makers seeking to improve the design of the European Union ETS.271 - PublicationAre fund of hedge fund returns asymmetric?(University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2004)
; ; We examine the return distributions of 332 funds of hedge funds and associated indices. Over half of the sample is significantly skewed according to the skewness statistic, and these are split 50/50 positive and negative. However, we argue that the skewness statistic can lead to erroneous inferences regarding the nature of the return distribution, because the test statistic is based on the normal distribution. Using a series of tests that make minimal assumptions about the shape of the underlying distribution, we find very little skewness in the returns of funds of funds, and when we do find evidence of asymmetry it is close to the mean rather than in the tails.137 - PublicationAssessing co-ordinated Asian exchange rate regimes(University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2010-01)
; This study assesses prospective Asian exchange rate regimes and finds short- and longrun currency dynamics more conducive to the introduction of a common peg based on a basket of the European euro, the United States dollar and the Japanese yen than the alternative of a United States dollar peg exchange rate regime. Exchange rate systems of 3- 4- and 5- Asian currencies are considered and the dynamics in a set of four European currencies prior to the introduction of the Euro provides benchmark evidence. The evidence for an Asian basket peg exchange rate regime is strengthened when, unlike prior studies, estimates of the long-run parameters account for time-varying volatility effects.357 - PublicationAssessing co-ordinated Asian exchange rate regimes(University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2007-08)
; This study assesses alternative Asian exchange rate regimes and finds short- and long-run currency dynamics more conducive to the possibility of introducing a common peg based on a basket of the European euro, the United States dollar and the Japanese yen than the alternative of re-introducing a United States dollar peg exchange rate regime. Exchange rate systems of 3- 4- and 5- Asian currencies are examined and the dynamics in a set of 4 European currencies prior to the introduction of the Euro provides benchmark evidence. The evidence for an Asian basket peg regime is strengthened when, unlike in prior studies, the long-run parameters are estimated while accounting for generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity effects.176 - PublicationCan the traditional Asian US dollar peg exchange rate regime be extended to include the Japanese yen?(University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2006-06)
; Using daily data for a select set of four Asian exchange rates, namely the Hong Kong dollar, the Singapore dollar, the Taiwan dollar and the Thailand baht, from October 1985 to October 2002, we apply principal components analysis and the O-GARCH model to describe the evolution and persistence in the correlations over time. We also estimate 2-, 3- and 4-variable multivariate GARCH models, without imposing the assumption of constant correlations, to investigate volatility interaction amongst the currencies. To allow for fat tails in the distributions of exchange rate changes, we use the multivariate student-t distribution in maximising our log-likelihood functions. Our results indicate the possibility of designing an Asian exchange rate system involving a number of the region’s currencies.429 - PublicationCapital structure in new technology-based firms : evidence from the Irish software sector(University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2004)
; Using a sample of 117 Irish software companies, we examine the capital structure of new technology-based firms. Consistent with the findings on financing for other small businesses, internal funds are the most important source of funding in new technology-based firms. However, in apparent contradiction to the pecking order hypothesis, the use of debt is rare and equity financing is the prime source of external finance. By questioning chief executive officers via survey on their perceptions and opinions on various financing issues, we are able to conclude that in many cases software firm founders prefer outside equity to debt. The dearth of debt in the capital structure of new technology-based firms cannot be wholly explained by financing constraints due to information asymmetries in the banking sector.3580 - PublicationA Comparative Anatomy of REITs and Residential Real Estate Indexes: Returns, Risks and Distributional Characteristics(University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2009-10-28)
; Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are the only truly liquid assets related to real estate investments. We study the behavior of U.S. REITs over the past three decades and document their return characteristics. REITs have somewhat less market risk than equity; their betas against a broad market index average about .65. Decomposing their covariances into principal components reveals several strong factors. REIT characteristics differ to some extent from those of the S&P/Case-Shiller (SCS) residential real estate indexes. This is partly attributable to methods of index construction. Our examination of REITs suggests that investment in real estate is far more risky than what might be inferred from the widely-followed SCS series.319 - PublicationConundrum or complication : a study of yield curve dynamics under unusual economic conditions and monetary policies(University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2008-03-04)
; The definition of the decline of long term yields in the light of increasing short term yields as a conundrum by Chairman Greenspan in February 2005 has generated a significant amount of research. This paper presents a study of yield curve dynamics over this period using economic surprise data as the diagnostic tool. Results are presented for both US and Japanese data which indicate a non-linear response of the yield curve to economic data and monetary policy over the period in question. Further, a limited model is presented that is consistent with the observations. This can lead to an explanation of the conundrum in terms of a non-linear yield response to expected long term inflation and a variable expected long term real rate.234 - PublicationCorrelation dynamics between Asia-Pacifc, EU and US stock returns(University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2007)
; ; This paper investigates the correlation dynamics in the equity markets of 13 Asia-Pacific countries, Europe and the US using the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model (AG-DCC-GARCH) introduced by Cappiello, Engle and Sheppard (2006). We find significant variation in correlation between markets through time. Stocks exhibit asymmetries in conditional correlations in addition to conditional volatility. Yet asymmetry is less appar- ent in less integrated markets. The Asian crisis acts as a structural break, with correlations increasing markedly between crisis countries during this period though the bear market in the early 2000s is a more significant event for correlations with developed markets. Our findings also provide further evidence consistent with increasing global market integration. The documented asymmetries and correlation dynamics have important implications for international portfolio diversification and asset allocation.821 - PublicationDo private equity buyouts represent value for target shareholders? Premiums in the boom of the early 2000s(University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2008-04)
; This study compares the takeover premiums for 55 private equity buyouts with 59 takeovers involving a public acquirer, from the US takeover market between 2004 and 2007. This investigation takes place amidst accusations of anti-competitive behaviour against some of the most active private equity groups in the US. While controlling for several other factors that might affect the takeover premium, we find weak evidence that bid premiums are significantly lower for target firms undergoing a private equity takeover than those subject to takeovers by public companies. We also demonstrate that abnormal returns earned by targets around takeover announcements can be a biased and misleading proxy for takeover premium.200 - PublicationDynamics of equity market integration in Europe : impact of political-economy events(University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2006-06)
; ; Unlike most prior literature in finance and economics, this paper focuses on events in the political economy and examines the integration of European equity markets over the 1988 through 2002 period using three innovative techniques that assesses how the level of integration in equity price levels changes over time. The results show that notwithstanding the rising interdependencies between the European and US equity market until the mid-1990s, the long run integrative relationships governing the European markets began to strengthen only in the late 1990s and in particular since 1997. This evidence suggests that despite several years of political willingness by European leaders to integrate economies, it was not until the Treaty of Amsterdam and the establishment of the European Central Bank that the markets deemed that European integration would in fact occur.874 - PublicationThe early managed fund industry : investment trusts in 19th century Britain(University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2003-09)The early years of the 21st century have been a difficult and challenging time for the managed funds industry. The neglected history of managed funds reveals prior episodes of sustained growth, questionable practices, upheaval and inevitably, regulation. The first fully diversified managed fund appeared in Britain in 1868, and the industry remained largely a British preserve until the rise of the investment company and the mutual fund in the United States during the 1920s. This paper documents the features of the early trusts, discusses the rise of the industry and the challenges it survived in the early years, and draws parallels with facets of the finance industry of today.
545 - PublicationEmpirical analysis of the spot market implications of price-elastic demand(University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2004)
; ; Regardless of the form of restructuring, deregulated electricity industries share one common feature: the absence of any significant, rapid demand-side response to the wholesale (or, spot market) price. For a variety of reasons, electricity industries continue to charge most consumers an average cost based on regulated retail tariff from the era of vertical integration, even as the retailers themselves are forced to purchase electricity at volatile wholesale prices set in open markets. This results in considerable price risk for retailers, who are sometimes forbidden by regulators from signing hedging contracts. More importantly, because end-users do not perceive real-time (or even hourly or daily) fluctuations in the wholesale price of electricity, they have no incentive to adjust their consumption in response to price signals. Consequently, demand for electricity is highly inelastic, and electricity generation resources can be stretched to the point where system stability is threatened. This, then, facilitates many other problems associated with electricity markets, such as market power and price volatility. Indeed, economic theory suggests that even modestly price-responsive demand can remove the stress on generation resources and decrease spot prices. To test this theory, we use actual generator bid data from the New York control area to construct supply stacks, and intersect them with demand curves of various slopes to approximate different levels of demand elasticity. We then estimate the potential impact of real-time pricing on the equilibrium spot price and quantity. These results indicate the immediate benefits that could be derived from a more price-elastic demand. Such analysis can provide policymakers with a measure of how effective price-elastic demand can potentially reduce prices and maintain consumption within the capability of generation resources.341 - PublicationEstimating financial risk measures for futures positions : a non-parametric approach(University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2006-12-23)
; This paper presents non-parametric estimates of spectral risk measures applied to long and short positions in 5 prominent equity futures contracts. It also compares these to estimates of two popular alternative measures, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). The spectral risk measures are conditioned on the coefficient of absolute risk aversion, and the latter two are conditioned on the confidence level. Our findings indicate that all risk measures increase dramatically and their estimators deteriorate in precision when their respective conditioning parameter increases. Results also suggest that estimates of spectral risk measures and their precision levels are of comparable orders of magnitude as those of more conventional risk measures.269 - PublicationEuropean monetary policy surprises : the aggregate and sectoral stock market response(University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2005-12)
; ; In this paper we investigate the stock market response to international monetary policy changes in the UK and Germany. Specifically, we analyse the impact of (un)expected changes in UK and German/euro area policy rates on UK and German aggregate and sectoral stock returns in an event study. The decomposition of the (un)expected changes in policy rates are based on futures markets. Overall, our results suggest that, UK monetary policy surprises have a significant negative influence on both aggregate and industry level stock returns in both the UK and Germany. The in uence of German/Euro area monetary policy shocks appears insignificant for both countries.983 - PublicationEvaluating the precision of estimators of quantile-based risk measures(University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2007-05)
; This paper examines the precision of estimators of Quantile-Based Risk Measures (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall, Spectral Risk Measures). It first addresses the question of how to estimate the precision of these estimators, and proposes a Monte Carlo method that is free of some of the limitations of existing approaches. It then investigates the distribution of risk estimators, and presents simulation results suggesting that the common practice of relying on asymptotic normality results might be unreliable with the sample sizes commonly available to them. Finally, it investigates the relationship between the precision of different risk estimators and the distribution of underlying losses (or returns), and yields a number of useful conclusions.221 - PublicationExponential spectral risk measures(University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2007-03-20)
; Spectral risk measures are attractive risk measures as they allow the user to obtain risk measures that reflect their subjective risk-aversion. This paper examines spectral risk measures based on an exponential utility function, and finds that these risk measures have nice intuitive properties. It also discusses how they can be estimated using numerical quadrature methods, and how confidence intervals for them can be estimated using a parametric bootstrap. Illustrative results suggest that estimated exponential spectral risk measures obtained using such methods are quite precise in the presence of normally distributed losses.250 - PublicationExtreme measures of agricultural financial risk(University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2008-10-06)
; ; Risk is an inherent feature of agricultural production and marketing and accurate measurement of it helps inform more efficient use of resources. This paper examines three tail quantile-based risk measures applied to the estimation of extreme agricultural financial risk for corn and soybean production in the US: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall (ES) and Spectral Risk Measures (SRMs). We use Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the tail returns and present results for these three different risk measures using agricultural futures market data. We compare the estimated risk measures in terms of their size and precision, and find that they are all considerably higher than normal estimates; they are also quite uncertain, and become more uncertain as the risks involved become more extreme.308 - PublicationExtreme spectral risk measures : an application to futures clearinghouse margin requirements(University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets, 2005-12-14)
; This paper applies the Extreme-Value (EV) Generalised Pareto distribution to the extreme tails of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts. It then uses tail estimators from these contracts to estimate spectral risk measures, which are coherent risk measures that reflect a user’s risk-aversion function. It compares these to VaR and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures, and compares the precision of their estimators. It also discusses the usefulness of these risk measures in the context of clearinghouses setting initial margin requirements, and compares these to the SPAN measures typically used.255