Now showing 1 - 10 of 11
  • Publication
    Does voting history matter : analysing persistence in turnout
    (University College Dublin; Geary Institute, 2005-12-01) ;
    Individuals who vote in one election are also more likely to vote in the next. Modelling the causal relationship between consecutive voting decisions however is intrinsically difficult, as this positive association can exist due to unobserved heterogeneity (i.e. some fixed, but unobserved, characteristics makes voters consistently turn out to vote) or habit formation (i.e. past turnout decisions influence subsequent turnout decisions). This paper overcomes this problem using longitudinal data from the British National Child Development Study (NCDS) to examine voting behaviour across three elections. Utilising techniques developed in the econometrics literature we find that failing to control for unobserved heterogeneity overestimates the extent of habit formation by almost 100%. Estimating a dynamic model of voter turnout, allowing for unobserved heterogeneity, implies that voting in one election increases the probability of voting in the next by about 13%. This figure is far less than previous studies have identified.
      389
  • Publication
    Money, mentoring and making friends : the impact of a multidimensional access program on student performance
    (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2010-04-07) ; ; ;
    There is a well established socioeconomic gradient in educational attainment, despite much effort in recent decades to address this inequality. This study evaluates a university access program that provides financial, academic and social support to low socioeconomic status (SES) students using a natural experiment which exploits the time variation in the expansion of the program across schools. The program has parallels with US affirmative actions programs, although preferential treatment is based on SES rather than ethnicity. Evaluating the effectiveness of programs targeting disadvantaged students in Ireland is particularly salient given the high rate of return to education and the lack of intergenerational mobility in educational attainment. Overall, we identify positive treatment effects on first year exam performance, progression to second year and final year graduation rates, with the impact often stronger for higher ability students. We find similar patterns of results for students that entered through the regular system and the ‘affirmative action’ group i.e. the students that entered with lower high school grades. The program affects the performance of both male and female students, albeit in different ways. This study suggests that access programs can be an effective means of improving academic outcomes for socio-economically disadvantaged students.
      474
  • Publication
    Does voting history matter? Analysing persistence in turnout
    (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2006-05) ;
    Individuals who vote in one election are also more likely to vote in the next. Modelling the causal relationship between past and current voting decisions however is intrinsically difficult, as this positive association can exist due to habit formation or unobserved heterogeneity. This paper overcomes this problem using longitudinal data from the British National Child Development Study (NCDS) to examine voter turnout across three elections. It distinguishes between unobserved heterogeneity caused by fixed individual characteristics and the initial conditions problem, which occurs when voting behaviour in a previous, but unobserved, period influences current voting behaviour. It finds that controlling for fixed effects unobserved heterogeneity has little impact on the estimated degree of habit in voter turnout, however failing to control for initial conditions reduces the estimate by a half. The results imply that voting in one election increases the probability of voting in a subsequent election by 13%.
      833
  • Publication
    Take up thy bed, and vote : measuring the relationship between voting behaviour and indicators of health
    (University College Dublin; Geary Institute, 2005-11-14) ;
    Individuals experiencing poor health are less likely to vote at election time, despite being the ones most affected by health policies implemented by the successful party. This paper investigates the relationship between health and voter turnout and political party choice in the 1979, 1987 and 1997 British general elections using the National Child Development Study (NCDS). It finds that poor health is associated with lower turnout, as the perceived costs of voting, such as the physical and mental effort involved, are greater than the perceived benefits, which are derived from the policy implications of the election outcome. In addition, the subset of unhealthy individuals who do vote at election time generally support Labour, as such voters are more likely to utilise the NHS and hence support parties that advocate public provision of health services. Given the low participation rates of the unhealthy, a political party which formulates an attractive policy package aimed at such potential voters could therefore mobilise a previously untapped source of the electorate.
      337
  • Publication
    Political interest, cognitive ability and personality : determinants of voter turnout in Britain
    (Cambridge University Press, 2008) ;
    This article uses longitudinal data from the National Child Development Study (NCDS) to investigate the determinants of voter turnout in the 1997 British general election. It introduces measures of cognitive ability and personality into the participation literature and finds that they are significant determinants of turnout. It also shows that standard turnout models may be biased by the inclusion of the much used ‘interest in politics' measure. A bivariate probit model of turnout and political interest finds that individuals with high comprehension ability and an aggressive personality are more likely to both turn out to vote and have an interest in politics.
    Scopus© Citations 147  1753
  • Publication
    The causal effect of breastfeeding on children’s cognitive development : a quasi-experimental design
    (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2010-03) ;
    Objective: To estimate the causal effect of breastfeeding on children’s cognitive skills as measured at ages 3, 5, 7 and 11. Design: An instrumental variable (IV) strategy which provides a correction method for dealing with selection bias. Standard linear regression models are compared to two-stage least squares models to test for the presence of endogeneity. The consistency of the results across multiple sources is also tested using data from two prospective longitudinal studies collected 40-years apart. Setting: The 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS) and the 2000 UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS). Participants: Data on 11,792 (age 3) and 9117 (age 5) children in MCS and 4923 (age 7 and 11) children in NCDS. Main outcome measures: Cognitive ability is measured by the Bracken School Readiness Assessment (age 3); Foundation Stage Profile (age 5); and tests of general ability including mathematics, comprehension, verbal and non-verbal skills (ages 7 and 11). Results: The duration of breastfeeding has a small, but significant, effect on children’s cognitive skills in the linear regression models at ages 3, 5, 7 and 11, but no effect in the IV models. However, in all cases, the hypothesis that breastfeeding is endogenous is rejected, indicating that the results of the linear regressions are valid. Conclusion: The relationship between breastfeeding and cognitive ability is not driven by selection bias once a rich set of confounders are included. IV methods can therefore be used to test for the presence of selection bias and are a useful alternative for identifying causal relationships when randomised control trials are not feasible. Showing that the size of the effect is similar for two cohorts born over 40 years apart, and using different measures of ability, are further indications that the relationship between breastfeeding and cognitive ability is not a statistical artefact.
      1140
  • Publication
    Measuring the relationship between voter turnout and health in Ireland
    (University College Dublin; School of Economics, 2006-10) ;
    Health issues are an integral part of the political agenda in Ireland. Yet no study to date has examined the direct impact of health concerns on political outcomes. This study investigates the impact of health, both physical and psychological, and perceptions of the health service on voter turnout in Ireland using the European Social Survey in 2005. The results show that individuals with poor subjective health are significantly less likely to vote in a General Election. Dissatisfaction with the health service is also associated with a lower probability of voting. However these effects interact: those with poor health and who are dissatisfied with the health service are more likely to vote. Psychological well-being has no effect on voter turnout. The health effects identified in this study are large. Therefore, given the PR electoral system in Ireland, small changes in voter turnout could have dramatic consequences for electoral outcomes.
      424
  • Publication
    Returns to basic skills in Central & Eastern Europe : a semi parametric approach
    (UCD Geary Institute, 2005-04-06) ;
    This paper uses semi-parametric econometric techniques to investigate the relationship between basic skills and earning in three post-communist countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia using the IALS dataset. While the large increases in the returns to education in the new market economies has been well documented in the literature, no study to date has examined the impact of basic skills and schooling on income. Estimating a Mincer human capital model we find that including a measure of basic skills reduces the returns to education. In addition, using a partial linear model in which log earnings is linear in schooling, but is an arbitrary function of basic skills, we find that this relationship is not well described by the common assumption of linearity at the tails of the distribution.
      334
  • Publication
    Analysing the relationship between voter turnout and health in Ireland
    (Irish Medical Association, 2007-09) ;
    Health issues are an integral part of the political agenda in Ireland. Yet no study to date has examined the impact of health concerns on political outcomes. This study investigates the relationship between health, both physical and psychological, and perceptions of the health service, and voter turnout in Ireland using the European Social Survey in 2005, (n=2286, RR 59.7%). The results show that individuals with poor subjective health are significantly less likely to vote in a General Election. Dissatisfaction with the health service is also associated with a lower probability of voting. However these effects interact: those with poor health and who are dissatisfied with the health service are more likely to vote. Psychological well-being has no effect on voter turnout. The health effects identified in this study are large and further work is needed in this area to identify the causal mechanisms underlying this relationship.
      384
  • Publication
    Political interest, cognitive ability and personality : determinants of voter turnout in Britain (version 1.5)
    (University College Dublin; School of Economics, 2005-06) ;
    This paper uses longitudinal data from the National Cohort Development Study (NCDS) to investigate the determinants of voter turnout in the 1997 British General Election. It introduces measures of cognitive ability and personality into models of electoral participation and finds that firstly, their inclusion reduces the impact of education and secondly, that standard turnout models may be biased by the inclusion of the much used “interest in politics” measure. A bivariate probit model of turnout and interest then shows that individuals with high ability, an aggressive personality and a sense of civic duty are more likely to both turn out to vote and to have an interest in politics.
      1060