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Walsh, Brendan M.
Preferred name
Walsh, Brendan M.
Official Name
Walsh, Brendan M.
Research Output
Now showing 1 - 10 of 104
- PublicationThe economic and social implications of emigration(National Economic and Social Council, 1991)
; ; ; ; 785 - PublicationWhat’s in store for the Celtic Tiger?In exploring the medium-term prospects for the Irish economy, this article argues that a pessimistic scenario, in which the rapid growth of recent years inevitably ends in a crash, is not plausible. But neither is it realistic to expect a continuation of "Celtic Tiger" growth rates. Under Irish conditions, GNP growth in excess of 3.5% a year leads to fall in unemployment. When "full employment" is reached, further reductions in unemployment lead to rising wage inflation. In the absence of an exchange rate adjustment, high wage inflation leads to a loss of competitiveness. This acts as a break on growth. For these reasons, the realistic medium-term prospect for the Irish economy is that the growth rate will revert to its long run average in the region of 3.5%.
538 - PublicationThe demand for beer and spirits in IrelandThis paper is primarily an attempt to estimate econometric demand equations for beer and spirits in Ireland, but it is hoped that it also sheds light on some of the general considerations involved in empirical demand analysis. The results, taken in conjuction with earlier studies, suggest that certain variables, in addition to price and income, play a significant role in such demand analysis in Ireland. A useful variable in this context is the dependency ration, which measures changes in the age structure of the population. The results also support the thesis that dynamic elements are of considerable importance in demand theory. The most serious technical problem encountered in the study was the high degree of multicollinearity in the explanatory variables. It emerged that some of the conventional rules of thumb normally used for identifying the existence of this problem failed to exercise sufficient discrimination, and this provides a salutary lesson.
327 - PublicationThe influence of macroeconomic conditions and institutional quality on national levels of life satisfactionAnswers to the Eurobarometer question on Life Satisfaction are used to explore the effects of macroeconomic performance and institutional quality on average levels of self-assessed well-being in the countries of the enlarged European Union between 2004 and 2011. It is found that variations in national levels of life satisfaction can largely be accounted by a small number of socio-economic indicators. Life satisfaction is lowest in poor, corrupt countries where income inequality is pronounced. The adverse effect of higher unemployment on life satisfaction is partially offset by the positive impact of lower inflation. However, even when these factors are allowed for, significant country-level differences persist.
382 - PublicationCredibility, interest rates and the ERM : the Irish experience, 1986-92As one of a set of policies designed to reduce inflation and interest rates to the levels prevailing in Germany the Irish pound has been stabilised in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System since 1986. This paper examines the effect of this policy on short-term interest rates in Ireland. Only limited evidence is found that the exchange rate policy contributed to the reduction in the German-Irish interest rate differential. Sterling interest rates and the level of the Irish pound/sterling exchange rate have continued to influence the level of Irish interest rates. This was bourne out by the impact of the turbulence of September 1992 on Irish money markets. It is suggested that the costs of rigidly pegging the Irish pound in the ERM may outweigh the benefits of this policy.
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