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- PublicationThe COST 731 Action : a review on uncertainty propagation in advanced hydro-meteorological forecast systemsQuantifying uncertainty in flood forecasting is a difficult task, given the multiple and strongly nonlinear model components involved in such a system. Much effort has been and is being invested in the quest of dealing with uncertain precipitation observations and forecasts and the propagation of such uncertainties through hydrological and hydraulic models predicting river discharges and risk for inundation. The COST 731 Action is one of these and constitutes a European initiative which deals with the quantification of forecast uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecast systems. COST 731 addresses three major lines of development: (1) combining meteorological and hydrological models to form a forecast chain, (2) propagating uncertainty information through this chain and make it available to end users in a suitable form, (3) advancing high-resolution numerical weather prediction precipitation forecasts by using non-conventional observations from, for instance, radar to determine details in the initial conditions on scales smaller than what can be resolved by conventional observing systems. Recognizing the interdisciplinarity of the challenge COST 731 has organized its work forming Working Groups at the interfaces between the different scientific disciplines involved, i.e. between observation and atmospheric (and hydrological) modeling (WG-1), between atmospheric and hydrologic modelling (WG-2) and between hydrologic modelling and end-users (WG-3). This paper summarizes the COST 731 activities and its context, provides a review of the recent progress made in dealing with uncertainties in flood forecasting, and sets the scene for the papers of this Thematic Issue. In particular, a bibliometric analysis highlights the strong recent increase in addressing the uncertainty analysis in flood forecasting from an integrated perspective. Such a perspective necessarily involves the area of meteorology, hydrology, and decision making in order to take operational advantage of the scientific progress, an aspect in which COST 731 is successfully contributing to furthering the flood damage mitigation capabilities in Europe.
Scopus© Citations 68 2156
- PublicationVisualising flood forecasting uncertainty : some current European EPS platforms – COST731 Working Group 3COST funding allows European scientists establish international links, communicate their work to colleagues and promote international research cooperation. COST731 was established to study the propagation of uncertainty from hydro-meteorological observations through meteorolgical and hydrological models to the final flood forecast. One focus is on how information about uncertainty is presented to the end-user and how it is used. COST731 has assembled a number of demonstrations/case studies that illustrate the variety of practical approaches and these are presented here. While there is yet no consensus on how such information is presented, many end-users do find it useful.
Scopus© Citations 37 996
- PublicationPropagation of uncertainty from observing systems and NWP into hydrological models : COST-731 Working Group 2The COST-731 action is focused on uncertainty propagation in hydro-meteorological forecasting chains. Goals and activities of the action Working Group 2 are presented. Five foci for discussion and research have been identified: a) Understand uncertainties, b) Exploring, designing and comparing methodologies for the use of uncertainty in hydrological models, c) Providing feedback on sensitivity to data and forecast providers, d) Transferring methodologies among the different communities involved. e) Setting up test-beds and perform proof-of-concepts. Current examples of different perspectives on uncertainty propagation are presented.
Scopus© Citations 73 1410