Now showing 1 - 10 of 90
  • Publication
    Does the labour share of income drive inflation?
    (Central Bank of Ireland, 2002-06) ;
    Woodford (2001) has presented evidence that the new-Keynesian Phillips curve fits the empirical behavior of inflation well when the labor income share is used as a driving variable, but fits poorly when deterministically detrended output is used. He concludes that the output gap - the deviation between actual and potential output - is better captured by the labor income share, in turn implying that central banks should raise interest rates in response to increases in the labor share. We show that the empirical evidence generally suggests that the labor share version of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve is a very poor model of price inflation. We conclude that there is little reason to view the labor income share as a good measure of the output gap, or as an appropriate variable for incorporation in a monetary policy rule.
  • Publication
    Ireland’s Sovereign Debt Crisis
    (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2011-05)
    Among the countries currently experiencing sovereign debt crises, Ireland’s case is perhaps the most dramatic. As recently as 2007, Ireland was seen by many as top of the European class in its economic achievements. Ireland had combined a long period of high economic growth and low unemployment with budget surpluses. The country appeared to be well placed to cope with any economic slowdown as it had a gross debt-GDP ratio in 2007 of 25% and a sovereign wealth fund worth about €5000 a head.
  • Publication
    Staggered price contracts and inflation persistence : some general results
    (Central Bank of Ireland, 2004-10)
    Despite their popularity as theoretical tools for illustrating the effects of nominal rigidities, some have questioned whether models based on Taylor-style staggered contracts can match the persistence of the empirical inflation process. This paper presents some general theoretical results about the Taylor-style models. It is shown that these models do not have a problem matching high autocorrelations for inflation. However, they fail to explain a key feature of reduced-form Phillips-curve regressions: The positive dependence of inflation on its own lags. It is shown that staggered price contracting models instead predict that the coefficients on these lag terms should be negative.
  • Publication
    Disagreement and Market Structure in Betting Markets: Theory and Evidence from European Soccer
    (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2023-05) ;
    Online sports betting is growing rapidly around the world. We describe how the competitive structure of the bookmaking market affects odds when bettors disagree about the probabilities of the outcomes of sporting events but are on average correct. We show that the demand for bets on longshots is less sensitive to the odds than bets on favorites. This means monopolistic bookmakers will set odds exhibiting favorite-longshot bias while competitive bookmaking markets will not have this feature. We develop a version of the model for soccer matches and use these results to explain empirical findings on odds for over 80,000 European soccer games from two different bookmaking markets.
  • Publication
    Explaining the investment boom of the 1990s
    (Federal Reserve, 2000-02-07)
    Real equipment investment in the United States has boomed in recent years, led by soaring investment in computers. We find that traditional aggregate econometric models completely fail to capture the magnitude of this recent growth - mainly because these models neglect to address two features that are crucial (and unique) to the current investment boom. First, the pace at which firms replace depreciated capital has increased. Second, investment has been more sensitive to the cost of capital. We document that these two features stem from the special behavior of investment in computers and therefore propose a disaggregated approach. This produces an econometric model that successfully explains the 1990s equipment investment boom.
  • Publication
    The future for Eurozone financial stability policy
    (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2010-09)
    The past few months have exposed serious problems in relation to Europe’s ability to cope with financial stress. Placing the new Financial Stability funds on a permanent basis, in the form of a new European Monetary Fund will be required if Europe is to deal effectively with the serious debt problems of some Eurozone countries. However, this fund should exist to manage sovereign defaults in an orderly manner, not to prevent them altogether. Bank supervisors also need to publish regular stress tests, change their regulations on the risk weighting of sovereign debt and put new resolution procedures in place. Together, these reforms will allow Europe to deal with future sovereign debt problems without provoking a crisis.
  • Publication
    Changes in bank leverage: evidence from US bank holding companies
    (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2014-03) ;
    This paper examines how banks respond to shocks to their equity. If banks react to equity shocks by more than proportionately adjusting liabilities, then this will tend to generate a positive correlation between asset growth and leverage growth. However, we show that in the presence of changes in liabilities that are uncorrelated with shocks to equity, a positive correlation of this sort can occur without banks adjusting to equity shocks by more than proportionately adjusting liabilities. The paper uses data from US bank holding companies to estimate an empirical model of bank balance sheet adjustment. We identify shocks to equity as well as orthogonal shocks to bank liabilities and show that both equity and liabilities tend to adjust to move leverage towards target ratios. We also show that banks allow leverage ratios to fall in response to positive equity shocks, though this pattern is weaker for large banks, which are more active in adjusting liabilities after these shocks. We show how this explains why large banks have lower correlations between asset growth and leverage growth.
  • Publication
    How Does Inside Information Affect Sports Betting Odds?
    (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2023-07)
    We describe how the presence of insiders with superior information about potential outcomes of sporting events affects odds set by bookmakers, using a generalized version of the model in Shin (1991). The model has been widely cited as an explanation for the pattern of favorite-longshot bias observed in fixed-odds betting markets. We show that disagreement among those bettors without inside information causes favorite-longshot bias. The presence of insiders reduces odds but does not necessarily exacerbate favorite-longshot bias. For realistically calibrated beliefs, the fraction of insiders has a minimal effect on the ratio of favorite to longshot odds and the betting market collapses if this fraction rises above low levels.
  • Publication
    Are some forecasters really better than others?
    (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2010-04) ; ;
    In any dataset with individual forecasts of economic variables, some forecasters will perform better than others. However, it is possible that these ex post differences reflect sampling variation and thus overstate the ex ante differences between forecasters. In this paper, we present a simple test of the null hypothesis that all forecasters in the US Survey of Professional Forecasters have equal ability. We construct a test statistic that reflects both the relative and absolute performance of the forecaster and use bootstrap techniques to compare the empirical results with the equivalents obtained under the null hypothesis of equal forecaster ability. Results suggests limited evidence for the idea that the best forecasters are actually innately better than others, though there is evidence that a relatively small group of forecasters perform very poorly.