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Walsh, Patrick P.
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Walsh, Patrick P.
Official Name
Walsh, Patrick P.
Research Output
Now showing 1 - 10 of 46
- PublicationThe real wage gap in Ireland and its development over time : the Irish experience 1960-1987(University College Dublin. School of Economics, 1989-05)
; ; 140 - PublicationA rationale for repealing the 1987 Groceries OrderA ban on pricing below cost was implemented under the 1987 Groceries Order based on the premise that loss leading used in multi-product retail pricing distorts competition and exploits consumers in the short run, while driving a more concentrated structure and reducing welfare in the long run. Loss leading is examined for multi-product retailers selling in imperfectly competitive market niches with imperfect consumer information. We develop a theoretical argument in a simple two-stage framework that illustrates how loss leading on a subset of products is an equilibrium outcome of price competition that leaves overall welfare equal to that observed under laissez faire.
778 - PublicationDid political constraints bind during transition? Evidence from Czech elections 1990-2002Many theoretical models of transition are driven by the assumption that economic decision making is subject to political constraints. In this paper we empirically test whether the winners and losers of economic reform determined voting behaviour in the first five national elections in the Czech Republic. We propose that voters, taking stock of endowments from the planning era, could predict whether they would become "winners" or "losers" of transition. Using survey data we measure the percentage of individuals by region who were "afraid" and "not afraid" of economic reform in 1990. We define the former as potential "winners" who should vote for pro-reform parties, while latter are potential "losers" who should support leftwing parties. Using national election results and regional economic indicators, we demonstrate that there is persistence in support for pro-reform and communist parties driven by prospective voting based on initial conditions in 1990. As a result, we show that regional unemployment rates in 2002 are good predictors of regional voting patterns in 1990.
484 - PublicationEuropean Union trade and investment flows u-shaping industrial output in Central and Eastern Europe : theory and evidence(University of Michigan. William Davidson Institute, 1998-04)
; We undertake an analysis of the evolution of industrial output in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Romania over the period 1989-1995. We theoretically and empirically model the growth dynamics of EU oriented output within sectors of industry, ex-post trade and market liberalization, as investment induced Schumpeterian waves of product innovation. Greater assess to the EU market and investors is estimated to have induced growth with increasing convexity over-time in all sectors of each country but particularly in traditionally larger sectors. This growth, unconstrained by the transition process, was in product categories that already exported to the EU before 1989. We estimate the growth dynamics of non-EU oriented output within sectors as unobservable deterministic sector and country specific heterogeneity. We demonstrate that the evolution of non-EU industrial output followed the pattern as that observed in CIS countries. The different shape in the industrial output of CEE compared to CIS countries is explained mainly by the evolution of traditionally EU oriented production that benefited greatly from increased access to the EU market and EU investors.185 - PublicationStructural change and long-term unemployment in IrelandIn this paper we investigate the build-up in male long-term unemployment by allowing for heterogeneity both in the unemployment inflow and conditional survival rates. We construct semi-annual series of the male flows into and out of the Irish Live Register for the period 1967 to 1995 and develop a methodology that allows us to decompose the unemployment inflow by age and unemployment scheme and the unemployment outflow by duration of spell, age and unemployment scheme. Our results in conjunction with other evidence indicate that it was heterogeneity in the unemployment inflow caused by the changing occupational structure of employment over the 1980s that caused the build-up and persistance of male long-term unemployment in Ireland.
222 - PublicationMerger control in differentiated product industries(MIT Press Journals - Massachusets Institute, 2006)
; ; Given that brands (products) are location specific in terms of coverage of retail stores, we allow consumers to have preferences over location and products to carry distribution costs, alongside preferences and costs over other observable and unobservable product characteristics. We embed these considerations into Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (1995) to jointly estimate demand and cost parameters for brands (products) in Retail Carbonated Soft Drinks. Allowing for location has a very significant impact on estimated primitives and the predictive power of the structural model. As a counterfactual exercise we show the effects on welfare of an equilibrium that results from a change in the distribution of consumer taste for location.525 - PublicationSunk costs and the growth and failure of small businessWe model the growth and failure of small business in Irish Manufacturing during the period 1973-1994. We estimate the effect of start-up size on the employment growth while controlling for the business cycle, the life cycle and the probability of business survival, amongst other factors. Learning models of firm selection and evolution are accepted in Homogenous Goods but rejected in R&D sectors. Due to high (low) entry and failure costs in R&D (Homogenous Goods) sectors, learning is undertaken ex-ante (ex-post), inducing entry with certainty (uncertainty) concerning ex-post performance, causing Gibrat’s law to hold (fail).
555 - PublicationCoverage of retail stores and discrete choice models of demand : estimating price elasticities and welfare effects(University College Dublin. Geary Institute, 2010-01)
; ; Consumers' choice set of products within stores can be limited. Ackerberg and Rysman (2005) address this problem by modeling unobserved consumer preferences over products and retail stores, leading to augmented demand specifications. Having Carbonated Soft Drink product level data, where we observe products' store coverage, we are able to estimate their logit, nested logit and random coefficient logit specifications of demand in a structural model of equilibrium. Allowing for store coverage turns out to have a very significant impact on the estimated structural parameters and on the predictive power of the model. Taking these estimated structural parameters we perform a counterfactual whereby stores carry all products in the market. We find systematic increases in price elasticities and welfare in our new equilibrium. Competition in markets is more curtailed than normally assumed in structural models of industries.663 - PublicationThe optimality of loss leading in multi-product retail pricing - a rationale for repealing the 1987 Groceries Order in IrelandThe Competition Act in 1991 repealed all legally binding Orders in Ireland except for the 1987 Groceries Order. Article 11 of this Order categorically prohibits retail pricing in the grocery sector below the net invoice price of the wholesaler or manufacturer. The vast range of products retailed through outlets and the convenience of 'one stop' shopping result in imperfect costumer information and consumer switching costs. This enables retailers to price below cost on Known-Value-Items (KVIs) to attract customer entry and subsequently impose higher price-cost mark-ups on other non-KVIs, a practice defined as loss leading. This practice was deemed to be essentially predatory in effect by the Fair Trade Commission (FTC) in 1987. In this paper we examine the potential legitimacy of below cost selling by modeling the optimal pricing of a multi-product retailer in a game-theoretic framework. We show that loss leading is an equilibrium outcome that is socially desirable in an imperfectly competitive market. We also model the repercussions of introducing the ban for equilibrium profits, corresponding services and concentration levels in the market. Our analysis suggests that a removal of the ban in favour of the 1991 Competition Act would be welfare improving.
385 - PublicationStructural adjustment and regional long term unemployment in Poland(University of Michigan. William Davidson Institute, 1997)
; ; On aspect of transition economics is the fact that large scale inter and intra sector adjustments in employment will have to take place in the transition period to a market economy. The required decline of agriculture and manufacturing and the rise in services induce large inter-sectoral employment adjustment. The restructuring of state and previously state owned firms will induce large intra-sectoral employment adjustment. This process has to be facilitated by a large re-allocation of workers from their initial state. Restructuring of this kind can be expected to create a lot of frictional unemployment, due to congestion in the labour market, and structural unemployment, due to individuals with redundant human capital been separated from pre-transidonal job security. In this paper we write down a structural and frictional model of unemployment resulting from structural adjustment in employment in the spirit of Aghion and Howitt (1998). The relationship between regional development and unemployment rates is not monotonic in Poland. Using Polish county level unemployment register data this papers shows that the dynamics of regional labour demand in Poland have determined unemployment in a systematic way by changing the magnitude and composition of the inflows and the regional probabilities of exit conditional on duration, gender, age, education and previous tenure. Restructuring in employment can be facilitated by the social security system by allowing workers to use unemployment as a temporary pit stop in periods of congestion created by the transition process. Restructuring can also act as a cleansing process that sheds inefficient and redundant human capital from employment with compounds in unemployment creating a long term structural component of unemployment. We show the stage of regional restructuring and development determines the levels and composition of individuals in short term and long term spells. Restructuring induces both larger throughputs and deeper structural. problems in unemployment. In the most advanced regions where congestion is lower unemployment is mainly structural in nature resulting from individuals having undertaken long spells in employment in the planned system .188