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Shahid, Arsalan
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Shahid, Arsalan
Official Name
Shahid, Arsalan
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Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
- PublicationTowards Reliable and Accurate Energy Predictive Modelling using Performance Events on Modern Computing PlatformsInformation and Communication Technologies (ICT) systems and devices are forecast to consume up to 50% of global electricity in 2030. Considering the unsustainable future predicted, energy efficiency in ICT is becoming a grand technological challenge and is now a first-class design constraint in all computing settings. Energy efficiency in ICT can be achieved at the hardware level (or system-level) and software level (or application-level). While the mainstream approach is to minimize the energy of the operating environment and is extensively researched, application-level energy optimization is comparatively understudied and forms the focus of this work. The fundamental building block for energy minimization at the application level is an accurate measurement of energy consumption during application execution. There are three popular approaches to providing it: (a) System-level physical measurements using external power meters, (b) Measurements using on-chip power sensors, and (c) Energy predictive models. While the first approach is considered to be the ground truth, it is cost-prohibitive for the energy optimization of applications. The second approach using energy measurements by state-of-the-art on-chip sensors is not recommended for energy optimization of applications due to several issues related to the lack of accurate information in the vendor manuals and poorly reported experimental accuracy. The third approach of energy predictive modelling based on performance monitoring counters (PMCs) as model variables is now the leading method for prediction of energy consumption during application execution. In this thesis, we focus on application-level energy measurement, modelling, and optimization using PMCs. A vast majority of research works propose models where the employed model variables (or PMCs) are selected solely on the basis of their high positive correlation with energy consumption and report prediction accuracies ranging from poor to excellent. There are a few pieces of research that critically examine the inaccuracy of PMC-based models. We present a study to identify the causes of inaccuracies. We formulate a sound theoretical framework to understand the fundamental significance of the model variables with respect to the energy consumption and the causes of inaccuracy or the reported wide variance of the accuracy of the models. We use a model-theoretic approach to formulate the assumed properties of existing energy predictive models in a mathematical form. We extend the formalism by adding properties, heretofore unconsidered, that account for a limited form of energy conservation law. The extended formalism defines our theory of energy of computing. By applying the basic practical implications of the theory, we improve the prediction accuracy of state-of-the-art linear regression models from 31.2% to 18.01%. We demonstrate that use of the state-of-the-art measurement tools for energy optimization may lead to significant losses of energy (up to 84% for applications used in experiments) since they do not take into account the properties of the theory of energy predictive models for computing. Finally, we present the first comprehensive experimental study to compare the energy predictive modelling techniques employing PMCs. We demonstrate that a platform-level and application-level linear regression-based model employing the additive PMCs, irrespective of the applications used for training and testing, performs better in terms of average prediction accuracies.
248 - PublicationLong-Term Glucose Forecasting for Open-Source Automated Insulin Delivery Systems: A Machine Learning Study with Real-World Variability AnalysisGlucose forecasting serves as a backbone for several healthcare applications, including real-time insulin dosing in people with diabetes and physical activity optimization. This paper presents a study on the use of machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) methods for predicting glucose variability (GV) in individuals with open-source automated insulin delivery systems (AID). A three-stage experimental framework is employed in this work to systematically implement and evaluate ML/DL methods on a large-scale diabetes dataset collected from individuals with open-source AID. The first stage involves data collection, the second stage involves data preparation and exploratory analysis, and the third stage involves developing, fine-tuning, and evaluating ML/DL models. The performance and resource costs of the models are evaluated alongside relative and proportional errors for 17 GV metrics. Evaluation of fine-tuned ML/DL models shows considerable accuracy in glucose forecasting and variability analysis up to 48 h in advance. The average MAE ranges from 2.50 mg/dL for long short-term memory models (LSTM) to 4.94 mg/dL for autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, and the RMSE ranges from 3.7 mg/dL for LSTM to 7.67 mg/dL for ARIMA. Model execution time is proportional to the amount of data used for training, with long short-term memory models having the lowest execution time but the highest memory consumption compared to other models. This work successfully incorporates the use of appropriate programming frameworks, concurrency-enhancing tools, and resource and storage cost estimators to encourage the sustainable use of ML/DL in real-world AID systems.
120Scopus© Citations 1 - PublicationLarge-Scale Data Analysis for Glucose Variability Outcomes with Open-Source Automated Insulin Delivery SystemsOpen-source automated insulin delivery (AID) technologies use the latest continuous glucose monitors (CGM), insulin pumps, and algorithms to automate insulin delivery for effective diabetes management. Early community-wide adoption of open-source AID, such as OpenAPS, has motivated clinical and research communities to understand and evaluate glucose-related outcomes of such user-driven innovation. Initial OpenAPS studies include retrospective studies assessing high-level outcomes of average glucose levels and HbA1c, without in-depth analysis of glucose variability (GV). The OpenAPS Data Commons dataset, donated to by open-source AID users with insulinrequiring diabetes, is the largest freely available diabetes-related dataset with over 46,070 days’ worth of data and over 10 million CGM data points, alongside insulin dosing and algorithmic decision data. This paper first reviews the development toward the latest open-source AID and the performance of clinically approved GV metrics. We evaluate the GV outcomes using large-scale data analytics for the n = 122 version of the OpenAPS Data Commons. We describe the data cleaning processes, methods for measuring GV, and the results of data analysis based on individual self-reported demographics. Furthermore, we highlight the lessons learned from the GV outcomes and the analysis of a rich and complex diabetes dataset and additional research questions that emerged from this work to guide future research. This paper affirms previous studies’ findings of the efficacy of open-source AID.
67Scopus© Citations 7 - PublicationA Comparative Study of Methods for Measurement of Energy of ComputingEnergy of computing is a serious environmental concern and mitigating it is an important technological challenge. Accurate measurement of energy consumption during an application execution is key to application-level energy minimization techniques. There are three popular approaches to providing it: (a) System-level physical measurements using external power meters; (b) Measurements using on-chip power sensors and (c) Energy predictive models. In this work, we present a comprehensive study comparing the accuracy of state-of-the-art on-chip power sensors and energy predictive models against system-level physical measurements using external power meters, which we consider to be the ground truth. We show that the average error of the dynamic energy profiles obtained using on-chip power sensors can be as high as 73% and the maximum reaches 300% for two scientific applications, matrix-matrix multiplication and 2D fast Fourier transform for a wide range of problem sizes. The applications are executed on three modern Intel multicore CPUs, two Nvidia GPUs and an Intel Xeon Phi accelerator. The average error of the energy predictive models employing performance monitoring counters (PMCs) as predictor variables can be as high as 32% and the maximum reaches 100% for a diverse set of seventeen benchmarks executed on two Intel multicore CPUs (one Haswell and the other Skylake). We also demonstrate that using inaccurate energy measurements provided by on-chip sensors for dynamic energy optimization can result in significant energy losses up to 84%. We show that, owing to the nature of the deviations of the energy measurements provided by on-chip sensors from the ground truth, calibration can not improve the accuracy of the on-chip sensors to an extent that can allow them to be used in optimization of applications for dynamic energy. Finally, we present the lessons learned, our recommendations for the use of on-chip sensors and energy predictive models and future directions.
441Scopus© Citations 43 - PublicationA Novel Statistical Learning-Based Methodology for Measuring the Goodness of Energy Profiles of Applications Executing on Multicore Computing PlatformsAccurate energy profiles are essential to the optimization of parallel applications for energy through workload distribution. Since there are many model-based methods available for efficient construction of energy profiles, we need an approach to measure the goodness of the profiles compared with the ground-truth profile, which is usually built by a time-consuming but reliable method. Correlation coefficient and relative error are two such popular statistical approaches, but they assume that profiles be linear or at least very smooth functions of workload size. This assumption does not hold true in the multicore era. Due to the complex shapes of energy profiles of applications on modern multicore platforms, the statistical methods can often rank inaccurate energy profiles higher than more accurate ones and employing such profiles in the energy optimization loop of an application leads to significant energy losses (up to 54% in our case). In this work, we present the first method specifically designed for goodness measurement of energy profiles. First, it analyses the underlying energy consumption trend of each energy profile and removes the profiles that exhibit a trend different from that of the ground truth. Then, it ranks the remaining energy profiles using the Euclidean distances as a metric. We demonstrate that the proposed method is more accurate than the statistical approaches and can save a significant amount of energy.
105Scopus© Citations 3