Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
  • Publication
    Simulated future development of the Greater Dublin Area: consequences for protected areas and coastal flooding risk
    (The Centre for Urban and Regional Studies, Trinity College Dublin and The School of Geography, Planning & Environmental Policy, University College Dublin, 2010-12) ; ;
    The Greater Dublin Area (GDA) has experienced rapid urban expansion over the past 20 years. The development pattern has been described as economically driven and developer-led.These changes have had some well recognised consequences such as urban sprawl, congestion and a decrease in environmental quality. Despite the economic downturn, it is projected that the population of the GDA will continue to increase, potentially exacerbating the negative consequences of urban expansion. The objective of this study was to assess the consequences of continued urban expansion on the region, with particular emphasis on protected areas and flooding risk. To assess the consequences of continued urban expansion we used the MOLAND model; a cellular automaton-based spatial decision support system that has been widely applied across Europe. This model allows the user to explore urban growth under different population, infrastructure and policy scenarios. Using MOLAND we simulated urban expansion in the GDA under four population projections to 2026, assuming spatial trends of urban development stay similar to the recent past. In all scenarios development disperses widely across the study area, formerly separate towns merge and coastal regions are subject to particularly high growth. We discuss the simulated development in terms of its ecological, environmental, social and health effects.
      353
  • Publication
    Regional planning guideline review : using MOLAND as part of the strategic environmental assessment process
    (University College Dublin. Urban Institute Ireland, 2009) ; ; ; ; ;
    The urban fabric of the Greater Dublin Area (GDA) has expanded rapidly over the past 20 years. In an effort to coordinate development across the region the “Strategic Planning Guidelines for the Greater Dublin Area” were introduced in 1999. These were updated in 2004 as the “Regional Planning Guidelines: Greater Dublin Area 2004-2016” and are currently in the process of another review to become the “Regional Planning Guidelines: Greater Dublin Area 2010-2022”. As part of the review a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) was undertaken to evaluate the effect of several future settlement patterns on the region’s environment. The MOLAND model was used to simulate four scenarios of possible future settlement patterns for the GDA. These four scenarios were then evaluated in terms of several indicators of sustainability and the results discussed in terms of the implications of these future settlement patterns on the environment of the region.
      856
  • Publication
    Simulating urban encroachment upon Natura2000 sites using the MOLAND model : supporting appropriate assessment
    (University College Dublin. Urban Institute Ireland, 2009) ; ;
    The urban fabric of the Greater Dublin Area (GDA) has expanded rapidly over the past 20 years. This has lead to a decrease in environmental quality throughout the region and disturbance of protected areas. In an effort to guide development toward a more sustainable path in the region the “Strategic Planning Guidelines for the Greater Dublin Area” were introduced in 1999. These were updated in 2004 as the “Regional Planning Guidelines: Greater Dublin Area 2004-2016” and are currently in the process of another review to become the “Regional Planning Guidelines: Greater Dublin Area 2010-2022”. As part of the review an Appropriate Assessment was undertaken to evaluate the effect of several potential settlement patterns on the region’s protected areas. The MOLAND model was used to simulate four scenarios of possible future settlement patterns for the GDA. These four scenarios were then evaluated in terms of the impact of development on protected areas within the region.
      307