Now showing 1 - 7 of 7
  • Publication
    Simulated future development of the Greater Dublin Area: consequences for protected areas and coastal flooding risk
    (The Centre for Urban and Regional Studies, Trinity College Dublin and The School of Geography, Planning & Environmental Policy, University College Dublin, 2010-12) ; ;
    The Greater Dublin Area (GDA) has experienced rapid urban expansion over the past 20 years. The development pattern has been described as economically driven and developer-led.These changes have had some well recognised consequences such as urban sprawl, congestion and a decrease in environmental quality. Despite the economic downturn, it is projected that the population of the GDA will continue to increase, potentially exacerbating the negative consequences of urban expansion. The objective of this study was to assess the consequences of continued urban expansion on the region, with particular emphasis on protected areas and flooding risk. To assess the consequences of continued urban expansion we used the MOLAND model; a cellular automaton-based spatial decision support system that has been widely applied across Europe. This model allows the user to explore urban growth under different population, infrastructure and policy scenarios. Using MOLAND we simulated urban expansion in the GDA under four population projections to 2026, assuming spatial trends of urban development stay similar to the recent past. In all scenarios development disperses widely across the study area, formerly separate towns merge and coastal regions are subject to particularly high growth. We discuss the simulated development in terms of its ecological, environmental, social and health effects.
      353
  • Publication
    Where have all the parks gone? Changes in Dublin's green space between 1990 and 2006
    (University College Dublin. Urban Institute Ireland, 2009) ; ; ;
    Between 1990 and 2006, the Dublin Region was amongst the most rapidly growing urban areas in Europe. The increase in population and industry presents particular challenges for spatial planning. The aim of the Urban Environment Project (UEP, www.uep.ie) is to provide spatial data and forecasts of future land-use patterns by using dynamic urban modelling which will underpin the development of decision-support tools for planners and policy-makers. For this study, we are using UEP landcover datasets to specifically address the question of what changes in urban green space (GS) occurred over a period of rapid growth (1990 – 2006). GS provides many functions within a city, ranging from the biotic (habitat provision, corridors of dispersal, reservoir populations) to the abiotic (storm water control, carbon sequestration, temperature regulation, increased property values). Over the study period (1990 – 2006) artificial urban surfaces have increased by 30% (by 8926 ha). Although the overall percentage of GS to built fabric stayed roughly constant over time (at about 23%), the losses and gains of GS were not evenly distributed throughout the city. GS was mainly lost near the city centre, where it converted to built areas. The GS gained was at the perimeter of the city to the detriment of agricultural land and semi-natural vegetation types. The result is a net loss of vegetated surfaces both within and outside the city. We discuss the possible implications of these changes in Dublin’s GS.
      396
  • Publication
    Biodiversity in Dublin: A case study Approach
    (Trinity College Dublin. Centre for Urban and Regional Studies / University College Dublin. School of Geography, Planning & Environmental Policy, 2010-12) ; ;
    It is a common perception that biodiversity exists mainly in rural locations and this perception may be supported by the predominance of designated sites (e.g. Special Areas of Conservation, Special Protection Areas and Natural Heritage Areas) in rural areas. Given that approximately 40 per cent of the Irish population lives in rural areas the designated sites are indeed very important and their designation allows them particular protection. However, as Ireland’s population becomes increasingly urbanised, the role and management of urban biodiversity is becoming more important not only due to the encroachment of urban areas into previously undeveloped lands (i.e. urban sprawl) but also the recent trend towards increasing residential densities. These have heightened the role for proper recognition, protection and management of biodiversity in urban areas.
      300
  • Publication
    Encroachment upon protected areas within the Greater Dublin Area under two simulated futures
    (Universitas 21, 2009-11)
    The Urban Environment Project (UEP) is a multi-disciplinary, inter-institutional research project whose goal is to develop a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) for the Greater Dublin Area (GDA) (figure 1) so that policy makers can explore the environmental effects of policy alternatives before implementation and make evidence based decisions. The questions and problems posed by the specialist teams (Air Quality, Biodiversity, Climate Change, Transport and Urban Sprawl) are based in an environmental framework, and the land-use model MOLAND is the engine room for producing possible outcomes and scenarios to aid visualisation and direct comparison of a selection of infrastructure developments at both regional and local scales.
      128
  • Publication
    Regional planning guideline review : using MOLAND as part of the strategic environmental assessment process
    (University College Dublin. Urban Institute Ireland, 2009) ; ; ; ; ;
    The urban fabric of the Greater Dublin Area (GDA) has expanded rapidly over the past 20 years. In an effort to coordinate development across the region the “Strategic Planning Guidelines for the Greater Dublin Area” were introduced in 1999. These were updated in 2004 as the “Regional Planning Guidelines: Greater Dublin Area 2004-2016” and are currently in the process of another review to become the “Regional Planning Guidelines: Greater Dublin Area 2010-2022”. As part of the review a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) was undertaken to evaluate the effect of several future settlement patterns on the region’s environment. The MOLAND model was used to simulate four scenarios of possible future settlement patterns for the GDA. These four scenarios were then evaluated in terms of several indicators of sustainability and the results discussed in terms of the implications of these future settlement patterns on the environment of the region.
      856
  • Publication
    Simulating urban encroachment upon Natura2000 sites using the MOLAND model : supporting appropriate assessment
    (University College Dublin. Urban Institute Ireland, 2009) ; ;
    The urban fabric of the Greater Dublin Area (GDA) has expanded rapidly over the past 20 years. This has lead to a decrease in environmental quality throughout the region and disturbance of protected areas. In an effort to guide development toward a more sustainable path in the region the “Strategic Planning Guidelines for the Greater Dublin Area” were introduced in 1999. These were updated in 2004 as the “Regional Planning Guidelines: Greater Dublin Area 2004-2016” and are currently in the process of another review to become the “Regional Planning Guidelines: Greater Dublin Area 2010-2022”. As part of the review an Appropriate Assessment was undertaken to evaluate the effect of several potential settlement patterns on the region’s protected areas. The MOLAND model was used to simulate four scenarios of possible future settlement patterns for the GDA. These four scenarios were then evaluated in terms of the impact of development on protected areas within the region.
      307
  • Publication
    Does MOLAND work as a tool for the assessment and/or as a predictor of the distribution of urban biodiversity in Dublin city?
    (University College Dublin. Urban Institute Ireland, 2008) ;
    The MOLAND project's aim is to provide spatial planning tools that can be used to assess, monitor and model the development of urban and regional environments. To date it has been applied to an area of over 70,000km2 across Europe. MOLAND's use as a tool for the assessment and forecasting of biodiversity is examined with Dublin city as a case study. It was found that, in its current form, the MOLAND model's use as a biodiversity assessment tool was limited. Several recommendations are made for improvements to its capability in this area.
      403