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Neary, J. Peter
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Neary, J. Peter
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Neary, J. Peter
Research Output
Now showing 1 - 10 of 74
- PublicationRationalising the Penn World Table: True Multilateral Indices for International Comparisons of Real IncomeReal incomes are routinely compared internationally using methods which 'correct' for deviations from purchasing power parity. The most widely used of these is the Geary method which, though theoretically suspect, underlies the Penn World Table. This paper provides a theoretical foundation for the Geary method which I call the GAIA ('Geary-Allen International Accounts') System. I show that the Geary method is exact when preferences are non-homothetic Leontief and, more generally, gives a (possibly poor) approximation to the GAIA benchmark. An empirical application suggests that both it and other widely-used methods underestimate the degree of international inequality.
360 - PublicationInternational trade : Commercial policyFollowing a brief historical introduction and a discussion of different types of commercial policy, this paper reviews the arguments for and against trade protection. In the bench-mark case of a competitive, small, open economy, free trade maximizes aggregate national welfare, although some individual groups will lose unless compensation is actually paid. Guidelines for policy include the uniform reduction and "concertina" rules for tariff cuts, and the principle of targeting: corrective measures should be applied as close to the source of the "distortion" as possible. Relaxing the bench-mark assumptions allows exceptions to the case for free trade: "optimal" tariffs to manipulate world prices; "strategic" tariffs or export subsidies when home firms engage in oligopolistic competition with foreign rivals; and infant industry protection to allow home firms benefit from learning by doing. Protection can also raise the growth rate, though it is less likely to raise welfare in a growing economy. Overall, with due allowance for some ambiguity, both theoretical arguments and empirical evidence suggest a pragmatic case for free trade. Finally, the paper notes the political pressures for and against protection, and the role of international institutions such as the GATT in underpinning moves towards freer trade.
350 - PublicationThe mercantilist index of trade policyWe introduce an index of trade policy restrictiveness defined as the uniform tariff which maintains the same trade volume as a given tariff/quota structure. Our index overcomes the problems of the trade-weighted average tariff: it avoids substitution bias, correctly accounts for general equilibrium transfers, and takes import volume rather than welfare as benchmark. Empirical applications to international cross-section and time-series comparisons of trade policy confirm our theoretical results: trade-weighted average tariffs generally underestimate the true height of tariffs as measured by the trade-volume-equivalent index; this in turn always underestimates the welfare-equivalent index.
557 - PublicationDeterminants of the equilibrium real exchange rateThis note presents a compact derivation of the determinants of changes in the equilibrium real exchange rate (the inverse of the price index of nontraded goods relative to traded goods), in a small open economy with any number of goods and factors. It is shown that the change in the real exchange rate equals a simple weighted sum of the differences between marginal propensities to consume and to produce individual nontraded goods. Implications of the result are noted for a variety of applied questions, including the effects of foreign aid, the "Dutch disease" and purchasing power parity comparisions between countries.
947 - PublicationStrategic trade and industrial policy towards dynamic oligopoliesWe characterize optimal trade and industrial policy in dynamic oligopolistic markets. If governments can commit to future policies, optimal first-period intervention should diverge from the profit-shifting benchmark to an extent which exactly offsets the strategic behaviour implied by Fudenberg and Tirole's "fat cats and top dogs" taxonomy of business strategies. Without government commitment, there is an additional basis for intervention, whose sign depends on the stategic substitutability between future policy and current actions. We consider a variety of applications (to R&D spillovers, consumer switching costs, etc.) and extensions to second-best, revenue-constrained and entry-promotion policies.
666 - PublicationTariffs, quotas and VER's when capital is internationally mobileThis paper begins by reexamining the equivalence of tariffs and quantitative trade restrictions. It is argued that equivalence holds in extremely general circumstances but that this fact must be interpreted with care, since the tariff rates equivalent to a given set of quantitative restrictions are themselves functions of all the exogenous variables characterising equilibrium. A general framework for comparing the effects of tariffs, quotas and VER's is then presented. Among the results, it is shown that, although international capital mobility raises the welfare cost of tariff protection, it lowers the welfare cost of protection by means of quantitative restrications.
130 - PublicationExternal shocks, policy response and economic performanceThis paper examines the responsiveness of real income and the balance of payments to external shocks in a small open economy. It is shown that tariff restrictions and age rigidities tend to increase responsiveness and quota restrictions tend to educe it. The implications for policy response are considered and a micro-theoretic foundation for the distinction between expenditure-reducing and expenditure-switching policies is provided.
135 - PublicationMonopolistic competition and international trade theoryAlmost twenty-five years after the appearance of Dixit and Stiglitz’s paper on monopolistic competition and optimum product diversity, I try to take stock of the progres which has been made in applying their approach to international trade theory. I review the principal applications to trade theory and present a new one: by embedding DS preferences in a specific-factors framework, I sketch a model which shows how multinational corporations can emerge even between countries with similar factor endowments. Finally, I address some limitations of the approach, including its treatment of variety, returns to scale, entry and firms’ strategies.
1430 - PublicationPitfalls in the theory of international trade policy : concertina reform of tariffs, and subsidies to high-technology industriesThis paper explores the links between international trade theory and the practice of trade and industrial policy in open economies, with special attention to three areas where theoretical lessons have been misunderstood in policy debates. I argue that the "concertina rule" for tariff reform justifies reductions in high tariffs but not moves towards uniformity and particularly not increases in low tariffs. I show that the basic principles of tariff reform are the same in unilateral, multilateral and customs union contexts. Finally, I suggest that the theory of strategic trade policy does not justify subsidies to high-technology industries.
322 - PublicationA new approach to evaluating trade policyThis paper introduces a new measure, the Trade Restrictiveness Index, which measures the restrictiveness of a system of trade protection. The index is a general equilibrium application of the distance function and answers the question: `What uniform set of trade restrictions is equivalent (in welfare terms) to the initial protective structure?' The index is applicable to both tariffs and quotas and allows international and intertemporal comparisons. The index is operational and we provide an empirical example to illustrate its applicability and to show its superiority to commonly used measures.
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