Enabling a just transition: A composite indicator for assessing home-heating energy-poverty risk and the impact of environmental policy measures

Home-heating energy-poverty risk presents both challenge and opportunity for policymakers, businesses and communities. Effective measurement and management of this risk requires an evidence base that accounts for characteristics of the householder, building, and heating system. A composite index utilising 10 indicators refined to Small Area level is created to deliver spatially refined analysis of home-heating energy-poverty risk. The index is used to assess home-heating energy-poverty risk across 18,641 Small Area clusters in Ireland. This risk index is a scalable and internationally transferrable methodology that can be extended to cover other energy uses. Importantly the index is also dynamic and offers the capacity to analyse changes in energy-poverty risk associated with specific policy intervention proposals, including major contemporary environmental policy transitions such as residential fabric retrofit, residential heating system changes, energy price changes and carbon taxation. The application of the index to the Irish case affords refined insight into the impact and incidence of various market, technology and policy driven interventions such as fuel price changes, retrofit strategies and carbon tax increases. Risk and impacts vary geographically, and this index is designed to inform targeted policy interventions to mitigate home heating energy-poverty risk and thereby support ambitions for a ‘just transition’.