Irexit: Making the Worst of a Bad Situation

Relative to the rest of the EU, Ireland is especially vulnerable to the fallout from Brexit, both economically and politically. With increasing frustration over the reaction from Brussels, some are suggesting that an Irish exit from the EU would benefit the nation. A key argument for this is that it would allow for reintegration with the UK, thus preserving one of its largest trading partners. Using a structural general equilibrium model, we estimate that such a move would worsen the impacts of Brexit by as much as 250%, with low-skill workers disproportionately affected. This is due to the fact that while the UK is one of Ireland's single-nation trading partners, when compared to the EU27 as a group, it is much smaller.