Generation portfolio analysis for a carbon constrained and uncertain future

Many modern electricity systems are faced with the challenge of reducing green house gas emissions and dealing with increasing and more volatile fuel prices. Adequately dealing with these issues requires the evolution of suitable generation portfolios. However, doubts remain if the liberalized marketplace will deliver such portfolios. Analysis is undertaken to try and determine how the generation portfolio on the all-Ireland system may evolve by 2020. Resulting portfolios are examined with respect to the impact of carbon costs on the development of the portfolio and in particular wind energy. An assessment is made of the exposure of the portfolios to fuel price volatility and how portfolios may wish to diversify to avoid this. The analysis endeavours to gain insight into the future generation portfolios with the aim of informing how policy instruments may be tailored to address these issues.