Generation portfolio analysis for a carbon constrained and uncertain future

Many modern electricity systems are faced with the
challenge of reducing green house gas emissions and dealing with
increasing and more volatile fuel prices. Adequately dealing with
these issues requires the evolution of suitable generation
portfolios. However, doubts remain if the liberalized marketplace
will deliver such portfolios. Analysis is undertaken to try and
determine how the generation portfolio on the all-Ireland system
may evolve by 2020. Resulting portfolios are examined with
respect to the impact of carbon costs on the development of the
portfolio and in particular wind energy. An assessment is made of
the exposure of the portfolios to fuel price volatility and how
portfolios may wish to diversify to avoid this. The analysis
endeavours to gain insight into the future generation portfolios
with the aim of informing how policy instruments may be tailored
to address these issues.