Steps toward a probabilistic framework for tunnelling damage

Globally, the high rates of urbanization over the past century have spurred unprecedented levels of tunnel construction. With each tunnel installation, there is a large affiliated risk for damage to aboveground structures, especially those of unreinforced masonry. Such damage (and the subsequent costs and litigation) occur, despite huge sums committed to construction monitoring and pre-tunnel mitigation. Arguably, damage still happens because the wide range of parameters and the extent of their variability are not sufficiently considered in the risk assessment process. To address these uncertainties, a probabilistic framework for the large-scale risk assessment of existing, unreinforced masonry buildings subjected to bored tunnelling is proposed by the Urban Modelling Group (UMG) at the University College Dublin (UCD). This paper summarizes the initial steps needed to achieve such a framework.