Providing Explainable Race-Time Predictions and Training Plan Recommendations to Marathon Runners

Millions of people participate in marathon events every year, typically devoting at least 12-16 weeks to building their endurance and fitness so that they can safely complete these gruelling 42.2km races. Most runners follow a training plan that is tailored to their expected finish-time (e.g. sub-4 hours or 4-5 hours), and these plans will prescribe a complex mixture of training sessions to help them achieve these times. However, such plans cannot adapt to the individual needs (fitness levels, changing goals, personal preferences) of runners, providing only broad training guidance rather than more personalised support. The development of wearable sensors and mobile fitness applications facilitates the collection of a large amount of training data from runners. In this paper, we propose a recommender system that utilizes such training data to deliver more personalised training advice to runners, using ideas from case-based reasoning to reuse and adapt the training habits of similar runners. Explainability plays a significant role in this type of system, and we also describe how the predictions and recommendation advice can be presented to runners. An initial off-line evaluation is presented based on a large-scale, real-world dataset.