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  5. A Note on the Size Distribution of Irish Mortgages
 
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A Note on the Size Distribution of Irish Mortgages

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Download WP11_17.pdf343.01 KB
Author(s)
Kelly, Morgan 
Uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10197/6375
Date Issued
August 2011
Date Available
19T12:51:08Z February 2015
Abstract
Using Department of Environment data on number of mortgages by size category we find that the Weibull distribution accurately models the distribution of loans under €300,000 but severely underestimates the number of larger loans. We therefore use a a Pareto distribution for loans above this level. We estimate that from 2006 to 2008 there were fewer than 2,000 loans over €1 million with total value of €3 billion; and that there were 11,000 loans over €500,000 with estimated value of €9 billion. While the number of people taking out these mortgages is unknown, the conjecture that the largest 10,000 mortgage borrowers owe around €10 billion, largely for buy to let mortgages, does not appear implausible given these results. More tentatively, an ecological inference procedure suggests that interest only mortgages went almost exclusively to property investors.
Type of Material
Working Paper
Publisher
University College Dublin. School of Economics
Start Page
1
End Page
8
Series
UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series
WP11/17
Keywords
  • Irish banks

  • Bad loans

  • Mortgages

Web versions
http://www.ucd.ie/t4cms/WP11_17.pdf
Language
English
Status of Item
Not peer reviewed
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ie/
Owning collection
Economics Working Papers & Policy Papers
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Feb 2, 2023
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