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Forecasting Soccer Matches With Betting Odds: A Tale of Two Markets
Author(s)
Date Issued
2023-02
Date Available
2023-05-03T15:26:27Z
Abstract
We compare the properties of betting market odds set in two distinct markets for a large sample of European soccer matches. We confirm inefficiencies in the traditional market for bets on a home win, an away win or a draw as found in previous studies such as Angelini and De Angelis (2019), in particular that there is a strong pattern of favourite-longshot bias. Conversely, we document how a betting market that has emerged in recent years, the Asian handicap market, can generate efficient forecasts for the same set of matches using a new methodology for mapping its odds into probabilities.
Type of Material
Working Paper
Publisher
University College Dublin. School of Economics
Start Page
1
End Page
30
Series
UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series
WP2023/05
Copyright (Published Version)
2023 the Authrs
Classification
G14
L83
Z20
Z21
Language
English
Status of Item
Not peer reviewed
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License
File(s)
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Name
WP23_05.pdf
Size
329.6 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
4f59d5fed6829a203b533f17d11eab74
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