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Epidemiological analyses to support national control of SARS-CoV-2 in Ireland
Author(s)
Date Issued
2022
Date Available
2022-12-07T16:54:59Z
Abstract
Pathogen emergence has been increasing in recent decades. In December 2019, an outbreak of atypical pneumonia emerged in Wuhan, central China. The cause of the disease, was subsequently identified as a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and the disease named COVID-19. Over a short period of time SARS-CoV-2 rapidly spread throughout mainland China and surrounding countries in the western pacific before cases appeared in Europe in February of 2020. The first case in Ireland was documented in Ireland on the 29th of February 2020. In response, a series of epidemiological analyses were conducted to support decision making in the national control of the disease. The objective of this thesis was to provide regions-specific estimates of region-specific epidemiological parameters of interest, to aid in the accurate modelling of the disease in the country. The ultimate goal was to improve models so that more accurate information could be provided to decision makers. Chapter one proposed the use of the number of close contacts of infected cases over time as a metric for monitoring behaviour of infected contacts. The study found that the distribution of contacts per case was overdispersed, with a small proportion of cases reporting very large numbers of contacts. The study also provided an evidence basis for mathematical age-cohort compartmental models, by providing data on the social contacts of the Irish population under different levels of restriction. Chapter two estimated the serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 in Ireland using contact tracing data. The median serial interval was 4.0 days which was lower than estimates previously used for the statistical approximation of the serial interval in Ireland. Furthermore, the study also suggested that up to two thirds of transmission events were likely to have occurred prior to the onset of symptoms in the primary case. Finally, chapter three evaluated the potential use of Rapid Antigen Diagnostic Tests in screening individuals attending mass gatherings. The baseline risk of infection in the tested population is of key importance when interpreting the results of any imperfect diagnostic tests. This study provided a mechanism for estimating the baseline risk, as well as the uncertainty around that risk, using incidence data. The studies presented in this thesis demonstrate that secondary analyses of contact tracing data can yield meaningful and useful pieces of information that may be used to more accurately reflect transmission in the population of interest. However, it is also worth pointing out that certain opportunities were underutilized in the collection and analysis of contact tracing data. Given the apparent acceleration of pathogen emergence, evidenced in particular by the temporal proximity of repeated coronavirus outbreaks in the past 20 years, it is vital that Ireland take steps to develop infrastructure to deal with the current pandemic as well as the threat of future endemic diseases. Similar to work in other countries, this thesis demonstrates the strength of a OneHealth approach to the management of emerging infectious diseases.
Type of Material
Master Thesis
Publisher
University College Dublin. School of Public Health, Physiotherapy and Sports Science
Qualification Name
M.Sc.
Copyright (Published Version)
2022 the Author
Language
English
Status of Item
Peer reviewed
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License
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