Technological Change, Immigration, and Demographic Change

This thesis consists of three standalone chapters, each exploring how technological change, immigration, and demographic shifts shape local labor markets in the United States (US). Chapter 1 examines the impact of industrial robots on the employment of natives and immigrants across US local labor markets between 1990 and 2014, focusing on whether robot adoption affects their employment differentially. It exploits plausibly exogenous variation in robot exposure across labor markets over time and finds that one more robot per thousand workers reduces the employment-to-population ratio of natives and immigrants by 0.38 and 0.67 percentage points, respectively. The greater adverse impact on immigrants is attributed to the fact that they specialize in jobs at risk of being automated. Chapter 2 examines the impact of low-skilled immigration on the college enrollment of natives across US local labor markets between 1980 and 2010. It uses an instrumental variables approach based on the interaction between a labor market's distance to the Mexican border and the inflow of Mexicans into the country. The study finds that a 1 percentage point increase in the share of low-skilled immigrants leads to a 0.27 percentage point increase in the college enrollment rate of natives. Chapter 3 examines the impact of population aging on the internal migration of working-age individuals across US local labor markets between 1990 and 2015. It exploits the decline in birth rates between 1950 and 1985 across labor markets as an instrumental variable for population aging. The study finds that a 1 percentage point increase in the proportion of the population aged 60 and above results in a 5.13 percentage point decline in the working-age population. This observed decline is over-proportional compared to the 1.30 percentage point decrease predicted by demographic trends alone, suggesting that substantial migration responses are likely driving the more pronounced reduction in the working-age population.