The Effect of Uncertainty on the Prediction of Building Damage Due to Tunnelling-Induced Settlement

Prediction of the response of buildings to tunnelling-induced settlement for the extent of a tunnel route is a complex task due to the heterogeneous nature of ground conditions, variable tunnelling operations, and unknown building parameters. Consequently, there are generally uncertainties associated with building damage predictions. This paper presents a probabilistic numerical methodology to investigate the effect of uncertainties for the damage prediction of masonry buildings due to tunnelling-induced settlement. The methodology is employed to provide a Class C1 prediction for a previously documented case history. The results demonstrate the uncertainties that have a significant influence in terms of the building response prediction and, furthermore, provide a quantitative risk assessment for masonry buildings due to nearby tunnelling.