The Effect of Traffic Growth on Characteristic Bridge Load Effects

Freight traffic in the European Union is increasing with time. This paper describes a method for considering this growth when assessing traffic loading on bridges and examines the effect of this growth on characteristic load effects. The Eurocode Load Model 1 is used for the design of new bridges. As this model can be overly conservative for the assessment of existing bridges, a scaled down version can be used by applying a–factors to the load model. This is usually done by modelling the traffic loading on the bridge using site-specific weigh-in-motion data and calculating the a–factors in accordance with the results. In this paper, weigh-in-motion data from a site in the Netherlands is used to demonstrate the proposed approach. 40-year simulations of traffic loading are performed on various bridges. The simulations consider year-on-year growth in both the volume and weight of trucks. Time-varying generalized extreme value distributions are then fitted to the simulated data and used to calculate the characteristic load effects. The results are then compared with the load effects generated by Load Model 1 in order to calculate the associated factors. It is found that an increase in truck weights has the most significant influence on the factors but that increased flow also has a significant effect.