Suicide in Ireland : the influence of alcohol and unemployment

In this paper we model the behaviour of the Irish suicide rate over the period 1968‐2009 using
the unemployment rate and the level of alcohol consumption as explanatory variables. It is
found that these variables have significant positive effects on suicide mortality in several
demographic groups. Alcohol consumption is a significant influence on the male suicide rate up
to age 64. Its influence on the female suicide rate is not as well‐established, although there is
evidence that it is important in the 15‐24 and 25‐34 age groups. The unemployment rate is also
a significant influence on the male suicide rate in the younger age groups. The behaviour of
suicide rates among males aged 55 and over and females aged 25 and over is largely
unaccounted for by our model. These broad conclusions hold when account is taken of a
structural break in the 1980s, with the response to unemployment being greater in the earlier
period and that to alcohol greater in the later period. The findings suggest that higher alcohol
consumption played a major role in the increase in suicide mortality among young Irish males
between the late 1960s and the end of the century. In the early twenty first century a
combination of falling alcohol consumption and low unemployment led to a marked reduction
in suicide rates, although there is some evidence that the suicide rate is being increasingly
under‐reported in recent years. The recent rise in the suicide rate may be attributed to the
sharp increase in unemployment, especially among males, but it has been moderated by the
continuing fall in alcohol consumption. Some policy implications of the findings are discussed.