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Does voting history matter : analysing persistence in turnout
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File | Description | Size | Format | |
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dennyk_workpap_020.pdf | 211.03 KB |
Author(s)
Date Issued
01 December 2005
Date Available
27T16:17:54Z May 2008
Abstract
Individuals who vote in one election are also more likely to vote in the next. Modelling the causal relationship between consecutive voting decisions however is intrinsically difficult, as this positive association can exist due to unobserved heterogeneity (i.e. some fixed, but unobserved, characteristics makes voters consistently turn out to vote) or habit formation (i.e. past turnout decisions influence subsequent turnout decisions). This paper overcomes this problem using longitudinal data from the British National Child Development Study (NCDS) to examine voting behaviour across three elections. Utilising techniques developed in the econometrics literature we find that failing to control for unobserved heterogeneity overestimates the extent of habit formation by almost 100%. Estimating a dynamic model of voter turnout, allowing for unobserved heterogeneity, implies that voting in one election increases the probability of voting in the next by about 13%. This figure is far less than previous studies have identified.
Type of Material
Working Paper
Publisher
University College Dublin; Geary Institute
Series
UCD Geary Institute Discussion Paper Series
WP2005/13
Copyright (Published Version)
Geary Insitute
Subject – LCSH
Voting research
Language
English
Status of Item
Not peer reviewed
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License
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