Effect of short-term risk-aversive dispatch on a complex system model for power systems

In the analysis of time series of blackouts a power
law dependency of blackout size with respect to frequency has
been observed. It has been hypothesized that this behaviour is the
result of the power system operating near critical points. Models
have been created in order to analyze this type of behaviour in
power systems. In this paper the effect of conservative versus nonconservative
generation dispatch is studied using one such model.
Conservative dispatches are ones that are performed in order to
minimize stress on the system and therefore attempt to minimize
possible outages and blackouts. This dispatch is compared with a
non-conservative dispatch that attempts to maximize the stress
and therefore increase the immediate risk of outages and
blackouts. It is found that the non-conservative dispatch although
attempting to maximize the immediate risk reduces the frequency
of blackouts of all sizes over the conservative dispatch in the long
term.