Building a Framework to Measure Adaptive Capacities to Build Resilience of Smallholder Farm Households in Wolaita Zone, Ethiopia

Wolaita zone, like most other Ethiopian zones, is subject to top-down policy formulation with limited opportunities to engage with local populations. This is at odds with conventional thinking that seeks to "value" local knowledge and experience. This study aims to build a framework to measure livelihood changes and identify the rationale for these changes by using an ongoing longitudinal study. The study employed both quantitative and qualitative data collection methods to establish a baseline for the subsequent phases. It began phase one by establishing a baseline on the livelihood practices and localized adaptation strategies of 400 smallholder farm households randomly selected from three agro-ecological systems in the Wolaita zone using GPS coordinates. The quantitative data were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics as well as a binary logit model, and the qualitative data were stated in narrative form and triangulated with the quantitative results. The results showed that 36% of households depend on agriculture, 23% depend on agriculture plus off-farm plus non-farm, 22.25% depend on agriculture plus non-farm, 5.75% depend on agriculture plus off-farm activities, and the remaining 13.25% depend on non-farm and off-farm activities for their livelihoods. Additionally, from the total sample households, 7.25% received remittances, 17.25% benefited from the safety net program, 7% received direct aid to support their livelihoods, and 31% reported that at least one of their family members migrated somewhere in search of employment. The influences of the local climate and associated changes on their livelihoods were perceived to have mostly negative consequences. Approximately 60% of households adapted their livelihoods by using a variety of localized adaptation strategies. The model results showed that the age of household heads, farmland size, livestock ownership, participation in local organization, income, and agro-ecology positively and significantly affected localized adaptation strategies. But extension agent visits and distance to market negatively and significantly affected. Based on the qualitative results a framework with a standard questionnaire and research instruments using the ODK tool was developed and deployed, and an optimum interval (2 years) was developed to measure incremental adaptations and provide continuously updated information for policymakers. This study recommends that the government should recognize local knowledge, multiple stakeholders should participate, interdisciplinary research should be conducted, and communities should share their knowledge. It also suggests establishing a center with an agricultural meteorological station at Wolaita Sodo University to track livelihood changes and provide stakeholders with timely, accurate, and local meteorological and biological information.