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Change points of global temperature

Author(s)
Cahill, Niamh  
Rahmstorf, Stefan  
Parnell, Andrew C.  
Uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10197/7337
Date Issued
2015-08
Date Available
2015-12-22T16:35:25Z
Abstract
We aim to address the question of whether or not there is a significant recent 'hiatus', 'pause' or 'slowdown' of global temperature rise. Using a statistical technique known as change point (CP) analysis we identify the changes in four global temperature records and estimate the rates of temperature rise before and after these changes occur. For each record the results indicate that three CPs are enough to accurately capture the variability in the data with no evidence of any detectable change in the global warming trend since∼1970. We conclude that the term 'hiatus' or 'pause' cannot be statistically justified.
Sponsorship
European Commission - European Regional Development Fund
Higher Education Authority
Science Foundation Ireland
Type of Material
Journal Article
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Journal
Environmental Research Letters
Volume
10
Issue
8
Start Page
1
End Page
6
Copyright (Published Version)
2015 IOP Publishing Ltd.
Subjects

Hiatus

Change points

Global temperature

DOI
10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084002
Language
English
Status of Item
Peer reviewed
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ie/
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Cahill_globalchangepoints_2015.pdf

Size

813.4 KB

Format

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Checksum (MD5)

227b7d8b616fe158b6181bb48ec7521a

Owning collection
Mathematics and Statistics Research Collection
Mapped collections
CASL Research Collection•
Climate Change Collection•
Earth Institute Research Collection

Item descriptive metadata is released under a CC-0 (public domain) license: https://creativecommons.org/public-domain/cc0/.
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