Utilising time of use surveys to predict water demand profiles of residential building stocks: Irish case study for domestic hot water

The prediction of water consumption patterns is a challenge, especially when water metering is not available at scale. The paper focuses on the prediction of analytical domestic hot water (DHW) demand profiles for detailed building archetype models, using an occupant focused approach based on time-of-use survey (TUS) data. Five dwelling types are considered over different construction periods, representative of the majority of the Irish residential stock, which is used here as a case study. They are modelled at room level using EnergyPlus and converted into archetype models. A bottom-up approach is utilised to develop the required operational data at high space and time resolution. That methodology applies Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to TUS activity data to develop activity-specific profiles for occupancy and domestic equipment electricity use. It is extended to DHW demand profiles by combining the probability distributions for particular TUS activities with average daily DHW consumptions, depending on the household size, day type and season. The archetype models are found to be 90% accurate with the Irish standard dwelling energy assessment procedure in estimating the annual energy requirements for DHW heating. Moreover, they capture variations in DHW consumption, heat demand and energy usage for DHW heating, on a national scale and a fifteen-minute basis.