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Simulated future development of the Greater Dublin Area: consequences for protected areas and coastal flooding risk
Date Issued
2010-12
Date Available
2016-06-28T09:46:34Z
Abstract
The Greater Dublin Area (GDA) has experienced rapid urban expansion over the past 20 years. The development pattern has been described as economically driven and developer-led.These changes have had some well recognised consequences such as urban sprawl, congestion and a decrease in environmental quality. Despite the economic downturn, it is projected that the population of the GDA will continue to increase, potentially exacerbating the negative consequences of urban expansion. The objective of this study was to assess the consequences of continued urban expansion on the region, with particular emphasis on protected areas and flooding risk. To assess the consequences of continued urban expansion we used the MOLAND model; a cellular automaton-based spatial decision support system that has been widely applied across Europe. This model allows the user to explore urban growth under different population, infrastructure and policy scenarios. Using MOLAND we simulated urban expansion in the GDA under four population projections to 2026, assuming spatial trends of urban development stay similar to the recent past. In all scenarios development disperses widely across the study area, formerly separate towns merge and coastal regions are subject to particularly high growth. We discuss the simulated development in terms of its ecological, environmental, social and health effects.
Sponsorship
Environmental Protection Agency
Type of Material
Journal Article
Publisher
The Centre for Urban and Regional Studies, Trinity College Dublin and The School of Geography, Planning & Environmental Policy, University College Dublin
Journal
Journal of Irish Urban Studies
Volume
9
Start Page
31
End Page
51
Copyright (Published Version)
2010 Journal of Irish Urban Studies
Web versions
Language
English
Status of Item
Peer reviewed
ISSN
1545-1920
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License
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Simulated_future_development_of_the_Greater_Dublin_Area_consequences_for_protected_areas_and_coastal_flooding_risk.pdf
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936.35 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
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