Structural adjustment and regional long term unemployment in Poland

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Title: Structural adjustment and regional long term unemployment in Poland
Authors: Lehmann, Hartmut
O'Flaherty, John
Walsh, Patrick P.
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Date: 1997
Abstract: On aspect of transition economics is the fact that large scale inter and intra sector adjustments in employment will have to take place in the transition period to a market economy. The required decline of agriculture and manufacturing and the rise in services induce large inter-sectoral employment adjustment. The restructuring of state and previously state owned firms will induce large intra-sectoral employment adjustment. This process has to be facilitated by a large re-allocation of workers from their initial state. Restructuring of this kind can be expected to create a lot of frictional unemployment, due to congestion in the labour market, and structural unemployment, due to individuals with redundant human capital been separated from pre-transidonal job security. In this paper we write down a structural and frictional model of unemployment resulting from structural adjustment in employment in the spirit of Aghion and Howitt (1998). The relationship between regional development and unemployment rates is not monotonic in Poland. Using Polish county level unemployment register data this papers shows that the dynamics of regional labour demand in Poland have determined unemployment in a systematic way by changing the magnitude and composition of the inflows and the regional probabilities of exit conditional on duration, gender, age, education and previous tenure. Restructuring in employment can be facilitated by the social security system by allowing workers to use unemployment as a temporary pit stop in periods of congestion created by the transition process. Restructuring can also act as a cleansing process that sheds inefficient and redundant human capital from employment with compounds in unemployment creating a long term structural component of unemployment. We show the stage of regional restructuring and development determines the levels and composition of individuals in short term and long term spells. Restructuring induces both larger throughputs and deeper structural. problems in unemployment. In the most advanced regions where congestion is lower unemployment is mainly structural in nature resulting from individuals having undertaken long spells in employment in the planned system .
Type of material: Working Paper
Publisher: University of Michigan. William Davidson Institute
Series/Report no.: William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series; 158
Copyright (published version): Copyright Hartmut Lehmann, John O'Flaherty, and Patrick P. Walsh 1998.
Subject LCSH: Unemployment--Poland
Labor market--Regional disparities
Economic development--Poland
Language: en
Status of Item: Not peer reviewed
Conference Details: Presented at the CEPR/WDI International Workshop in Transitions Economies, 9-12 July 1998, Prague
Appears in Collections:Politics and International Relations Research Collection
Geary Institute Research Collection

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