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Lockdowns & Rebounds: A Data Analysis of What Happens Next
Author(s)
Date Issued
2020-08
Date Available
2020-10-29T15:44:06Z
Abstract
We present an analysis of COVID-19 lockdowns for 56 countries based on daily mobility levels and estimated virus transmission rates. What will happen to transmission rates when countries begin to ease restrictions and mobility levels start to increase? Our analysis, based on data up to May 11th, 2020, show how, even when mobility levels increase, most countries (87%) continue to reduce the effective reproduction number (Rt) of the virus. Moreover, when restrictions were eased only after Rt was below 1, then countries always managed to maintain Rt≤ 1 even as mobility levels rose, at least for the period covered by the data. In contrast, when restrictions were eased before Rt fell below 1, then only 55% of countries managed to subsequently reduce Rt to below 1. By easing restrictions cautiously and carefully, it was possible to avoid a rebound in transmission rates while allowing mobility levels to increase.
Sponsorship
Science Foundation Ireland
Other Sponsorship
Insight Research Centre
Type of Material
Journal Article
Publisher
ACM
Journal
Digital Government: Research and Practice
Volume
1
Issue
4
Copyright (Published Version)
2020 the Author
Language
English
Status of Item
Peer reviewed
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License
File(s)
Owning collection
Scopus© citations
5
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