Lockdowns & Rebounds: A Data Analysis of What Happens Next

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Title: Lockdowns & Rebounds: A Data Analysis of What Happens Next
Authors: Smyth, Barry
Permanent link: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/11642
Date: Aug-2020
Online since: 2020-10-29T15:44:06Z
Abstract: We present an analysis of COVID-19 lockdowns for 56 countries based on daily mobility levels and estimated virus transmission rates. What will happen to transmission rates when countries begin to ease restrictions and mobility levels start to increase? Our analysis, based on data up to May 11th, 2020, show how, even when mobility levels increase, most countries (87%) continue to reduce the effective reproduction number (Rt) of the virus. Moreover, when restrictions were eased only after Rt was below 1, then countries always managed to maintain Rt≤ 1 even as mobility levels rose, at least for the period covered by the data. In contrast, when restrictions were eased before Rt fell below 1, then only 55% of countries managed to subsequently reduce Rt to below 1. By easing restrictions cautiously and carefully, it was possible to avoid a rebound in transmission rates while allowing mobility levels to increase.
Funding Details: Science Foundation Ireland
metadata.dc.description.othersponsorship: Insight Research Centre
Type of material: Journal Article
Publisher: ACM
Journal: Digital Government: Research and Practice
Volume: 1
Issue: 4
Copyright (published version): 2020 the Author
Keywords: Recommender systemsCOVID-19CoronavirusData scienceHealth informatics
DOI: 10.1145/3411762
Other versions: https://towardsdatascience.com/lockdowns-rebounds-e0db643f8961
Language: en
Status of Item: Peer reviewed
Appears in Collections:Insight Research Collection

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