Towards the Use of Blockchain Prediction Markets for Forecasting Wind Power

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Title: Towards the Use of Blockchain Prediction Markets for Forecasting Wind Power
Authors: Shamsi, MahdiehCuffe, Paul
Permanent link: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/11730
Date: 1-Oct-2020
Online since: 2020-11-24T17:16:03Z
Abstract: This paper proposes and discusses the idea of using nascent blockchain hosted prediction markets as a decentralised crowd sourcing method for renewable energy forecasting. This method is further used as a risk management and hedging tool against volatility in weather variables they depend on. While existing approaches have been centralised by nature, with limited sources of input data and models, prediction markets allow anyone to participate in forecasting by betting on an outcome and earning profits for correct results. Since they have mercenary motivations, these participants are most likely to provide reliable and accurate information. Moreover, renewable energy producers can participate in these prediction markets to hedge against low-income periods due to poor weather conditions. This paper delivers a conceptual framework to exploit prediction markets in a blockchain platform with the aim of forecasting and hedging of renewable energy sources. The potential financial gain from applying this approach has been demonstrated through a case study for a typical small wind power producer.
Funding Details: Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI)
Type of material: Conference Publication
Publisher: IEEE
Copyright (published version): 2020 IEEE
Keywords: Renewable energyBlockchainPrediction markets
DOI: 10.1109/energycon48941.2020.9236467
Language: en
Status of Item: Peer reviewed
Is part of: 2020 6th IEEE International Energy Conference (ENERGYCon)
Conference Details: The 6th IEEE International Energy Conference (EnergyCon 2020), Gammarth, Tunisia (held online due to coronavirus outbreak), 28 September - 1 October 2020
ISBN: 978-1-7281-2956-3
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ie/
Appears in Collections:Electrical and Electronic Engineering Research Collection

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