Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration modeling and climate projections

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Title: Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration modeling and climate projections
Authors: Gharbia, SalemSmullen, TrevorGill, LaurenceJohnston, PaulPilla, Francesco
Permanent link: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/11948
Date: 15-Aug-2018
Online since: 2021-02-16T15:18:46Z
Abstract: Evapotranspiration integrates energy and mass transfer between the Earth's surface and atmosphere and is the most active mechanism linking the atmosphere, hydrosphsophere, lithosphere and biosphere. This study focuses on the fine resolution modeling and projection of spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment scale as response to climate change. Six potential evapotranspiration designed algorithms, systematically selected based on a structured criteria and data availability, have been applied and then validated to long-term mean monthly data for the Shannon River catchment with a 50 m2 cell size. The best validated algorithm was therefore applied to evaluate the possible effect of future climate change on potential evapotranspiration rates. Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration projections have been modeled based on climate change projections from multi-GCM ensembles for three future time intervals (2020, 2050 and 2080) using a range of different Representative Concentration Pathways producing four scenarios for each time interval. Finally, seasonal results have been compared to baseline results to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential evapotranspiration and therefor on the catchment dynamical water balance. The results present evidence that the modeled climate change scenarios would have a significant impact on the future potential evapotranspiration rates. All the simulated scenarios predicted an increase in potential evapotranspiration for each modeled future time interval, which would significantly affect the dynamical catchment water balance. This study addresses the gap in the literature of using GIS-based algorithms to model fine-scale spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems based on climatological observations and simulations in different climatological zones. Providing fine-scale potential evapotranspiration data is very crucial to assess the dynamical catchment water balance to setup management scenarios for the water abstractions. This study illustrates a transferable systematic method to design GIS-based algorithms to simulate spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems.
Funding Details: European Commission Horizon 2020
Funding Details: Trinity College Dublin
Type of material: Journal Article
Publisher: Elsevier
Journal: Science of the Total Environment
Volume: 633
Start page: 571
End page: 592
Copyright (published version): 2018 Elsevier
Keywords: GISEvapotranspirationGeospatial-statisticalAlgorithmCellular-automata
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.208
Language: en
Status of Item: Peer reviewed
ISSN: 0048-9697
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ie/
Appears in Collections:Architecture, Planning and Environmental Policy Research Collection

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