A Model for the Spread of Infectious Diseases in a Region

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Title: A Model for the Spread of Infectious Diseases in a Region
Authors: Hunter, ElizabethMacNamee, BrianKelleher, John
Permanent link: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/12007
Date: 30-Apr-2020
Online since: 2021-03-04T16:45:41Z
Abstract: In understanding the dynamics of the spread of an infectious disease, it is important tounderstand how a town’s place in a network of towns within a region will impact how the diseasespreads to that town and from that town. In this article, we take a model for the spread of aninfectious disease in a single town and scale it up to simulate a region containing multiple towns.The model is validated by looking at how adding additional towns and commuters influences theoutbreak in a single town. We then look at how the centrality of a town within a network influencesthe outbreak. Our main finding is that the commuters coming into a town have a greater effect onwhether an outbreak will spread to a town than the commuters going out. The findings on centralityof a town and how it influences an outbreak could potentially be used to help influence future policyand intervention strategies such as school closure policies.
Funding Details: European Commission - European Regional Development Fund
Science Foundation Ireland
Funding Details: Insight Research Centre
The Technological University Dublin
Type of material: Journal Article
Publisher: MDPI
Journal: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Volume: 17
Issue: 9
Keywords: Machine learning & statisticsInfectious diseaseEpidemiologyAgent-based modelCentralitySimulation
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17093119
Language: en
Status of Item: Peer reviewed
ISSN: 1660-4601
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ie/
Appears in Collections:Computer Science Research Collection
Insight Research Collection

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