Surprising rationality in probability judgment: Assessing two competing models

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
quantum_probability_preprint.pdf433.46 kBAdobe PDFDownload
Title: Surprising rationality in probability judgment: Assessing two competing models
Authors: Costello, FintanWatts, PaulFisher, Christopher
Permanent link: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/12116
Date: Jan-2018
Online since: 2021-04-22T15:10:37Z
Abstract: We describe 4 experiments testing contrasting predictions of two recent models of probability judgment: the quantum probability model (Busemeyer, Pothos, Franco, & Trueblood, 2011) and the probability theory plus noise model (Costello & Watts, 2014, 2016a). Both models assume that people estimate probability using formal processes that follow or subsume standard probability theory. One set of predictions concerned agreement between people's probability estimates and standard probability theory identities. The quantum probability model predicts people's estimates should agree with one set of identities, while the probability theory plus noise model predicts a specific pattern of violation of those identities. Experimental results show the specific pattern of violation predicted by the probability theory plus noise model. Another set of predictions concerned the conjunction fallacy, which occurs when people judge the probability of a conjunction P(A∧B) to be greater than one or other constituent probabilities P(A) or P(B), contrary to the requirements of probability theory. In cases where A causes B, the quantum probability model predicts that the conjunction fallacy should only occur for constituent B and not for constituent A: the noise model predicts that the fallacy should occur for both A and B. Experimental results show that the fallacy occurs equally for both, contrary to the quantum probability prediction. These results suggest that people's probability estimates do not follow quantum probability theory. These results support the idea that people estimate probabilities using mechanisms that follow standard probability theory but are subject to random noise.
Type of material: Journal Article
Publisher: Elsevier
Journal: Cognition
Volume: 170
Start page: 280
End page: 297
Copyright (published version): 2017 Elsevier
Keywords: HumansProbabilityJudgmentProbability theoryAdultYoung adultConjunction fallacyQuantum theory
DOI: 10.1016/j.cognition.2017.08.012
Language: en
Status of Item: Peer reviewed
ISSN: 0010-0277
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ie/
Appears in Collections:Computer Science Research Collection

Show full item record

Page view(s)

136
Last Week
16
Last month
checked on May 10, 2021

Download(s)

7
checked on May 10, 2021

Google ScholarTM

Check

Altmetric


If you are a publisher or author and have copyright concerns for any item, please email research.repository@ucd.ie and the item will be withdrawn immediately. The author or person responsible for depositing the article will be contacted within one business day.