Presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection: a secondary analysis using published data

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Title: Presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection: a secondary analysis using published data
Authors: Casey, MiriamGriffin, John M.McAloon, Conor G.Byrne, Andrew W.Madden, Jamie M.McEvoy, DavidCollins, Áine B.Hunt, KevinBarber, AnnButler, FrancisLane, ElizabethO'Brien, KirstyWall, Patrick G.Walsh, KieranMore, Simon John
Permanent link: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/12310
Date: 28-Jun-2021
Online since: 2021-07-01T15:26:40Z
Abstract: Objective To estimate the proportion of presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection that can occur, and the timing of transmission relative to symptom onset.Setting/design Secondary analysis of international published data.Data sources Meta-analysis of COVID-19 incubation period and a rapid review of serial interval and generation time, which are published separately.Participants Data from China, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Italy, Republic of Korea, Singapore and Vietnam from December 2019 to May 2020.Methods Simulations were generated of incubation period and of serial interval or generation time. From these, transmission times relative to symptom onset, and the proportion of presymptomatic transmission, were estimated.Outcome measures Transmission time of SARS-CoV-2 relative to symptom onset and proportion of presymptomatic transmission.Results Based on 18 serial interval/generation time estimates from 15 papers, mean transmission time relative to symptom onset ranged from −2.6 (95% CI −3.0 to –2.1) days before infector symptom onset to 1.4 (95% CI 1.0 to 1.8) days after symptom onset. The proportion of presymptomatic transmission ranged from 45.9% (95% CI 42.9% to 49.0%) to 69.1% (95% CI 66.2% to 71.9%).Conclusions There is substantial potential for presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 across a range of different contexts. This highlights the need for rapid case detection, contact tracing and quarantine. The transmission patterns that we report reflect the combination of biological infectiousness and transmission opportunities which vary according to context.
Type of material: Journal Article
Publisher: BMJ
Journal: BMJ Open
Volume: 11
Issue: 6
Copyright (published version): 2021 the Authors
Keywords: EpidemiologyInfection controlInfectious diseasesPublic healthVirologyCOVID-19Coronavirus
DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-041240
Language: en
Status of Item: Peer reviewed
ISSN: 2044-6055
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ie/
Appears in Collections:Institute of Food and Health Research Collection
Public Health, Physiotherapy and Sports Science Research Collection
Veterinary Medicine Research Collection
CVERA Research Collection

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