Covid-19, non-Covid-19 and excess mortality rates not comparable across countries

Files in This Item:
 File SizeFormat
Downloadcovid-19-non-covid-19-and-excess-mortality-rates-not-comparable-across-countries.pdf287.9 kBAdobe PDF
Title: Covid-19, non-Covid-19 and excess mortality rates not comparable across countries
Authors: Kelly, Gabrielle E.Petti, StefanoNoah, Norman
Permanent link: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/12409
Date: 2-Aug-2021
Online since: 2021-08-12T14:50:24Z
Abstract: Evidence that more people in some countries and fewer in others are dying because of the pandemic, than is reflected by reported coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) mortality rates, is derived from mortality data. Using publicly available databases, deaths attributed to Covid-19 in 2020 and all deaths for the years 2015–2020 were tabulated for 35 countries together with economic, health, demographic and government response stringency index variables. Residual mortality rates (RMR) in 2020 were calculated as excess mortality minus reported mortality rates due to Covid-19 where excess deaths were observed deaths in 2020 minus the average for 2015–2019. Differences in RMR are differences not attributed to reported Covid-19. For about half the countries, RMR's were negative and for half, positive. The absolute rates in some countries were double those in others. In a regression analysis, population density and proportion of female smokers were positively associated with both Covid-19 and excess mortality while the human development index and proportion of male smokers were negatively associated with both. RMR was not associated with any of the investigated variables. The results show that published data on mortality from Covid-19 cannot be directly comparable across countries. This may be due to differences in Covid-19 death reporting and in addition, the unprecedented public health measures implemented to control the pandemic may have produced either increased or reduced excess deaths due to other diseases. Further data on cause-specific mortality is required to determine the extent to which residual mortality represents non-Covid-19 deaths and to explain differences between countries.
Type of material: Journal Article
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Journal: Epidemiology and Infection
Volume: 149
Copyright (published version): 2021 the Authors
Keywords: COVID-19Mortality ratesExcess mortality ratesCoronavirus
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268821001850
Language: en
Status of Item: Peer reviewed
ISSN: 0950-2688
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ie/
Appears in Collections:Mathematics and Statistics Research Collection

Show full item record

Page view(s)

59
Last Week
10
Last month
checked on Sep 20, 2021

Download(s)

18
checked on Sep 20, 2021

Google ScholarTM

Check

Altmetric


If you are a publisher or author and have copyright concerns for any item, please email research.repository@ucd.ie and the item will be withdrawn immediately. The author or person responsible for depositing the article will be contacted within one business day.