Numbers of close contacts of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 and their association with government intervention strategies

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Title: Numbers of close contacts of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 and their association with government intervention strategies
Authors: McAloon, Conor G.Wall, Patrick G.Butler, FrancisCodd, MaryGormley, EamonnO'Grady, LukeMore, Simon Johnet al.
Permanent link: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/12709
Date: 9-Dec-2021
Online since: 2022-01-10T16:56:37Z
Abstract: Background: Contact tracing is conducted with the primary purpose of interrupting transmission from individuals who are likely to be infectious to others. Secondary analyses of data on the numbers of close contacts of confirmed cases could also: provide an early signal of increases in contact patterns that might precede larger than expected case numbers; evaluate the impact of government interventions on the number of contacts of confirmed cases; or provide data information on contact rates between age cohorts for the purpose of epidemiological modelling. We analysed data from 140,204 close contacts of 39,861 cases in Ireland from 1st May to 1st December 2020. Results: Negative binomial regression models highlighted greater numbers of contacts within specific population demographics, after correcting for temporal associations. Separate segmented regression models of the number of cases over time and the average number of contacts per case indicated that a breakpoint indicating a rapid decrease in the number of contacts per case in October 2020 preceded a breakpoint indicating a reduction in the number of cases by 11 days. Conclusions: We found that the number of contacts per infected case was overdispersed, the mean varied considerable over time and was temporally associated with government interventions. Analysis of the reported number of contacts per individual in contact tracing data may be a useful early indicator of changes in behaviour in response to, or indeed despite, government restrictions. This study provides useful information for triangulating assumptions regarding the contact mixing rates between different age cohorts for epidemiological modelling.
Type of material: Journal Article
Publisher: Springer
Journal: BMC Public Health
Volume: 21
Issue: 1
Copyright (published version): 2021 the Authors
Keywords: COVID-19SARS-CoV-2Contact tracingInterventionsCoronavirus
DOI: 10.1186/s12889-021-12318-y
Language: en
Status of Item: Peer reviewed
ISSN: 1471-2458
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ie/
Appears in Collections:Mathematics and Statistics Research Collection
Biosystems and Food Engineering Research Collection
Public Health, Physiotherapy and Sports Science Research Collection
Veterinary Medicine Research Collection
CVERA Research Collection

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