Numbers of close contacts of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 and their association with government intervention strategies

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dc.contributor.authorMcAloon, Conor G.-
dc.contributor.authorWall, Patrick G.-
dc.contributor.authorButler, Francis-
dc.contributor.authorCodd, Mary-
dc.contributor.authorGormley, Eamonn-
dc.contributor.authorO'Grady, Luke-
dc.contributor.authorMore, Simon John-
dc.contributor.authoret al.-
dc.date.accessioned2022-01-10T16:56:37Z-
dc.date.available2022-01-10T16:56:37Z-
dc.date.copyright2021 the Authorsen_US
dc.date.issued2021-12-09-
dc.identifier.citationBMC Public Healthen_US
dc.identifier.issn1471-2458-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10197/12709-
dc.description.abstractBackground: Contact tracing is conducted with the primary purpose of interrupting transmission from individuals who are likely to be infectious to others. Secondary analyses of data on the numbers of close contacts of confirmed cases could also: provide an early signal of increases in contact patterns that might precede larger than expected case numbers; evaluate the impact of government interventions on the number of contacts of confirmed cases; or provide data information on contact rates between age cohorts for the purpose of epidemiological modelling. We analysed data from 140,204 close contacts of 39,861 cases in Ireland from 1st May to 1st December 2020. Results: Negative binomial regression models highlighted greater numbers of contacts within specific population demographics, after correcting for temporal associations. Separate segmented regression models of the number of cases over time and the average number of contacts per case indicated that a breakpoint indicating a rapid decrease in the number of contacts per case in October 2020 preceded a breakpoint indicating a reduction in the number of cases by 11 days. Conclusions: We found that the number of contacts per infected case was overdispersed, the mean varied considerable over time and was temporally associated with government interventions. Analysis of the reported number of contacts per individual in contact tracing data may be a useful early indicator of changes in behaviour in response to, or indeed despite, government restrictions. This study provides useful information for triangulating assumptions regarding the contact mixing rates between different age cohorts for epidemiological modelling.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherSpringeren_US
dc.rightsThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder.en_US
dc.subjectCOVID-19en_US
dc.subjectSARS-CoV-2en_US
dc.subjectContact tracingen_US
dc.subjectInterventionsen_US
dc.subjectCoronavirusen_US
dc.titleNumbers of close contacts of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 and their association with government intervention strategiesen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
dc.internal.authorcontactothersimon.more@ucd.ieen_US
dc.statusPeer revieweden_US
dc.identifier.volume21en_US
dc.identifier.issue1en_US
dc.citation.otherArticle Number: 2238en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/s12889-021-12318-y-
dc.neeo.contributorMcAloon|Conor G.|aut|-
dc.neeo.contributorWall|Patrick G.|aut|-
dc.neeo.contributorButler|Francis|aut|-
dc.neeo.contributorCodd|Mary|aut|-
dc.neeo.contributorGormley|Eamonn|aut|-
dc.neeo.contributorO'Grady|Luke|aut|-
dc.neeo.contributorMore|Simon John|aut|-
dc.neeo.contributoret al.||aut|-
dc.date.updated2021-12-16T10:54:43Z-
dc.rights.licensehttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ie/en_US
item.grantfulltextopen-
item.fulltextWith Fulltext-
Appears in Collections:Mathematics and Statistics Research Collection
Biosystems and Food Engineering Research Collection
Public Health, Physiotherapy and Sports Science Research Collection
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CVERA Research Collection
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