A multi-level, time-series network analysis of the impact of youth peacebuilding on quality peace

Abstract

Purpose: Over 60% of armed conflicts reoccur; the seed of future conflict is sown even as a peace agreement is signed. The cyclical nature of war calls for a focus on youth who can disrupt this pattern over time. Addressing this concern, the developmental peacebuilding model calls for a dynamic, multilevel and longitudinal approach. Design/methodology/approach: Multilevel time-series network analysis of a dataset containing 193 countries and spanning the years between 2011 to 2020 was performed. This statistical approach allows for complex modelling that can reveal new patterns of how different youth peace-building dimensions, identified through rapid evidence assessment (i.e. education, engagement, information, inclusion) promote quality peace over time. Such a methodology not only assesses between-country differences, but also within-country change. Findings: While the within-country contemporaneous network shows positive links for education, the temporal network shows significant lagged effects for all four dimensions on quality peace. The between-country network indicates significant direct effects of education and information, on average, and indirect effects of inclusion and engagement, on quality peace. Originality: This approach demonstrates a novel application of multilevel time-series network analysis to explore the dynamic development of quality peace, capturing both stability and change. The systemic analysis illustrates how youth peace-building dimensions impact quality peace in the macrosystem globally. This investigation of quality peace thus illustrates science of peace does not necessitate violent conflict.