An island economy or island economies? Ireland after the Belfast agreement

This paper examines economic progress in the island of Ireland in the context of its modern history, but with particular emphasis on the post cease-fire and post Belfast Agreement period, inquiring whether or not policy makers and businesses on the island have been able to build a more robust economy, benefiting from cross-border synergies as civil conflict faded into the background. In what way has an “island” economy emerged in the aftermath of internal Northern Ireland conflict, in the sense envisaged by business leaders such as Sir George Quigley and Liam Connellan in the early 1990s? In the absence of a strong “island” focus for the economies of North and South, are the two regions of the island likely to drift further apart and relate to the newly enlarged EU market in different ways? If an island economy does not emerge, has Northern Ireland any future other than as a lagging region of the UK? On the other hand, can Ireland sustain its role as an EU success story in the face of increasing competition from the new member states and from Asia?