The use of predictive likelihood to estimate the distribution of extreme bridge traffic load effect

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Title: The use of predictive likelihood to estimate the distribution of extreme bridge traffic load effect
Authors: Caprani, Colin C.
O'Brien, Eugene J.
Permanent link: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2329
Date: Mar-2010
Abstract: To assess the safety of an existing bridge, the loads to which it may be subject in its lifetime are required. Statistical analysis is used to extrapolate a sample of load effect values from the simulation period to the required design period. Complex statistical methods are often used and the end result is usually a single value of characteristic load effect. Such a deterministic result is at odds with the underlying stochastic nature of the problem. In this paper, predictive likelihood is shown to be a method by which the distribution of the lifetime extreme load effect may be determined. An estimate of the distributions of lifetime maximum load effect facilitates the reliability approach to bridge assessment. Results are presented for some cases of bridge loading, compared to a return period approach and significant differences identified. The implications for the assessment of existing bridges are discussed.
Funding Details: European Research Council
Type of material: Journal Article
Publisher: Elsevier
Copyright (published version): 2009 Elsevier Ltd
Keywords: BridgeStatisticsLoadPredictive likelihoodProbabilisticExtreme valueTrafficMonte CarloSimulation
Subject LCSH: Bridges--Live loads
Structural dynamics--Statistical methods
Extreme value theory
DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2009.09.001
Language: en
Status of Item: Peer reviewed
Appears in Collections:Critical Infrastructure Group Research Collection
Civil Engineering Research Collection

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