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Federal Reserve information during the great moderation
Author(s)
Date Issued
2008-04
Date Available
2008-06-16T16:04:57Z
Abstract
Using data from the period 1970-1991, Romer and Romer (2000) showed that Federal Reserve forecasts of inflation and output were superior to those provided by commercial forecasters. In this paper, we show that this superior forecasting performance deteriorated after 1991. Over the decade 1992-2001, the superior forecast accuracy of the Fed held only over a very short time horizon and was limited to its forecasts of inflation. In addition, the performance of both the Fed and the commercial forecasters in predicting inflation and output, relative to that of “naive” benchmark models, dropped
remarkably during this period.
Type of Material
Journal Article
Publisher
MIT Press
Journal
Journal of the European Economic Association
Volume
6
Issue
2-3
Start Page
609
End Page
620
Copyright (Published Version)
Copyright 2008 by the European Economic Association
Classification
C53
E52
Subject – LCSH
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
Inflation (Finance)
Economic forecasting
Web versions
Language
English
Status of Item
Peer reviewed
ISSN
1542-4766
This item is made available under a Creative Commons License
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