Oil volatility and the option value of waiting : an analysis of the G-7

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Title: Oil volatility and the option value of waiting : an analysis of the G-7
Authors: Bredin, Donal
Elder, John
Fountas, Stilianos
Permanent link: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2598
Date: Aug-2009
Abstract: There has recently been considerable interest in the potential adverse effects associated with excessive uncertainty in energy futures markets. Theoretical models of investment under uncertainty predict that increased uncertainty will tend to induce firms to delay investment. These models are widely utilized in capital budgeting decisions, particularly in the energy sector. There is relatively little empirical evidence, however, on whether such channels have industry-wide effects. Using a sample of G7 countries we examine whether uncertainty about a prominent commodity – oil – affects the time series variation in manufacturing activity. Our primary result is consistent with the predictions of real options theory – uncertainty about oil prices has had a negative and significant effect on manufacturing activity in Canada, France, UK and US.
Funding Details: Not applicable
Type of material: Working Paper
Publisher: University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets
Series/Report no.: Centre for Financial Markets working paper series; WP 09 07
Keywords: OilVolatilityVector autoregression,Multivariate GARCH-in-Mean VAR.
Subject LCSH: Commodity futures--Econometric models
Autoregression (Statistics)
Multivariate analysis
Other versions: http://www.ucd.ie/bankingfinance/docs/wp/WP-09-07-bredin.pdf
Language: en
Status of Item: Not peer reviewed
Appears in Collections:Centre for Financial Markets Working Papers

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