Housing risk and return : evidence from a housing asset-pricing model

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorCase, Karl E.-
dc.contributor.authorCotter, John-
dc.contributor.authorGabriel, Stuart A.-
dc.description2010 American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association Annual Conference, Atlanta, Georgia, USA 3-5 January 2010en
dc.description.abstractThis paper investigates the risk-return relationship in determination of housing asset pricing. In so doing, the paper evaluates behavioral hypotheses advanced by Case and Shiller (1988, 2002, 2009) in studies of boom and post-boom housing markets. Assuming investment is restricted to housing, the paper specifies and tests a housing asset pricing model, whereby expected returns of metropolitan-specific housing markets are equated to the market return, as represented by aggregate US house price time-series. We augment the model by examining the impact of additional risk factors including aggregate stock market returns, idiosyncratic risk, momentum, and Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) size effects. Further, we test the robustness of the asset pricing results to inclusion of controls for socioeconomic variables commonly represented in the house price literature, including changes in employment, affordability, and foreclosure incidence. We find a sizable and statistically significant influence of the market factor on MSA house price returns. Moreover we show that market betas have varied substantially over time. Also, we find the basic housing model results are robust to the inclusion of other explanatory variables, including standard measures of risk and other housing market fundamentals. Additional tests on the validity of the model using the Fama-MacBeth framework offer further strong support of a positive risk and return relationship in housing. Our findings are supportive of the application of a housing investment risk-return framework in explanation of variation in metro-area cross-section and time-series US house price returns. Further, results strongly corroborate Case-Shiller behavioral research indicating the importance of speculative forces in the determination of U.S. housing returns.en
dc.description.sponsorshipScience Foundation Irelanden
dc.format.extent2193920 bytes-
dc.subjectAsset pricingen
dc.subjectHouse price returnsen
dc.subjectRisk factorsen
dc.subject.lcshHousing--Prices--United Statesen
dc.subject.lcshAssets (Accounting)en
dc.subject.lcshReal estate investment--Rate of returnen
dc.subject.lcshFinancial risken
dc.titleHousing risk and return : evidence from a housing asset-pricing modelen
dc.typeConference Publicationen
dc.internal.availabilityFull text availableen
dc.statusPeer revieweden
dc.neeo.contributorCase|Karl E.|aut|-
dc.neeo.contributorGabriel|Stuart A.|aut|-
dc.description.adminSecond permission request sent 28/03/2011 - AV 05/04/2011en
item.fulltextWith Fulltext-
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