Adaptive post-processing of short-term wind forecasts for energy applications

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
WindEnergy-Web.pdf142.55 kBAdobe PDFDownload
Title: Adaptive post-processing of short-term wind forecasts for energy applications
Authors: Sweeney, Conor
Lynch, Peter
Permanent link: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2892
Date: Apr-2011
Abstract: We present a new method of reducing the error in predicted wind speed, thus enabling better management of wind energy facilities. A numerical weather prediction model, COSMO, was used to produce 48 h forecast data every day in 2008 at horizontal resolutions of 10 and 3 km. A new adaptive statistical method was applied to the model output to improve the forecast skill. The method applied corrective weights to a set of forecasts generated using several post-processing methods. The weights were calculated based on the recent skill of the different forecasts. The resulting forecast data were compared with observed data, and skill scores were calculated to allow comparison between different post-processing methods. The total root mean square error performance of the composite forecast is superior to that of any of the individual methods.
Funding Details: Science Foundation Ireland
Type of material: Journal Article
Publisher: Wiley
Copyright (published version): 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Keywords: Wind forecasting;Wind energy;Adaptive filtering;NWP;Statistical post-processing
Subject LCSH: Wind forecasting
Numerical weather forecasting
Wind power
Statistical weather forecasting
DOI: 10.1002/we.420
Language: en
Status of Item: Peer reviewed
Appears in Collections:Mathematics and Statistics Research Collection

Show full item record

SCOPUSTM   
Citations 20

9
Last Week
0
Last month
checked on Jun 22, 2018

Page view(s) 10

193
checked on May 25, 2018

Download(s) 20

315
checked on May 25, 2018

Google ScholarTM

Check

Altmetric


This item is available under the Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Ireland. No item may be reproduced for commercial purposes. For other possible restrictions on use please refer to the publisher's URL where this is made available, or to notes contained in the item itself. Other terms may apply.